Traditionally, spring is when the housing market tries to show its best side after a long winter. Longer days and brighter weather bring better listing photos, more viewings, and a familiar seasonal lift.
Throw in a couple of Bank Holidays and, in most years, momentum builds quickly. But this May feels different.
The mood across the market is noticeably more cautious. With the next decision from the Bank of England looming, buyers and sellers alike are adjusting to a new reality: interest rates are unlikely to fall any time soon.
My view is that rates will not rise again unless something forces the Bank’s hand, a fresh inflation spike, an energy price shock, or another unexpected global event.
'Interest rates are unlikely to fall any time soon'
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Without that, holding steady is the most likely path. Policymakers understand this inflationary period hasn’t been driven by reckless consumer spending. But ‘steady’ does not mean ‘easy’.
Higher borrowing costs for longer continue to squeeze affordability. That, in turn, weighs on confidence and keeps demand in check. So, what does that mean for house prices in May?
Rather than a sharp correction, expect a gentle drift down. Sellers will still come to market with optimistic expectations, but buyers are increasingly unwilling, or unable, to meet them.
My prediction is a modest 0.5 per cent dip over the month. In practical terms, that’s around £1,500 off the price of an average home compared to April.
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The usual late spring uplift in activity will still appear, more listings, more viewings, more movement, but it is likely to be largely offset by wider economic uncertainty.
The result is a market that feels uneven.
Well-priced homes, particularly in desirable locations, will continue to attract strong interest. But properties priced as though it’s still 2022 will struggle to gain traction.
Higher borrowing costs for longer continue to squeeze affordability
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Pricing correctly from day one has never mattered more.
For buyers, May could offer a rare window: more choice, less urgency, and greater scope to negotiate. For sellers, realism will be key.
In short, this is a market that wants to move, but is being held back by the cost of money and the lingering fear of what might come next.
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