Britain’s weather patterns could be thrown into chaos as experts confirm the arrival of a monster El Nino.
Sea temperatures in the Pacific last week breached threshold levels, triggering alarm bells for major global disruption.
Meteorologists have been watching the tropics for months after signs emerged of a significant El Nino event – an unusually high rise in ocean temperatures off the Peruvian coast.
El Nino, which happens every few years, is the driver behind severe weather events, including a heavy Asian monsoon and drought in Australia.
In the UK, although its impact is less, it is linked to unusually stormy weather in autumn and cold, dry ends to winter.
Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill said: “It has been declared an El Nino year, and by the end of the summer, it is likely to be a very strong El Nino, and most of the models suggest that it is going to be a very strong event.
“For the UK, the impacts are greater later in the year, during autumn and early winter.
“We are likely to see a south-shifted jet, so we are more likely to see wetter and milder weather, towards the end of the winter it is more likely to be drier and colder.”
El Nino confirmed by rising sea temperatures
|C3S/ECMWF
El Nino, or the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), was officially declared last week by the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the eastern Pacific, rising between 0.7C and 2.1C above threshold levels.
NOAA predicts a 63 per cent chance of an El Nino event later this year, ranking among the strongest ever recorded.
A spokesman said: “El Nino conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
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“There is a 63-per-cent chance of a very strong El Nino during November-January, and that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950.
“Even very strong El Nino events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favour of expected outcomes.”
Previous El Nino events happened in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, although SST rises did not hit the 2C expected this year.
As ocean temperatures rise during an El Nino event, so do global atmospheric temperatures, driving worldwide severe weather events.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: “Met Office predictions have been signalling for some time that this latest El Nino is likely to be a significant event – perhaps one of the most intense on record – with the potential to bring severe impacts to a number of regions of the world as the event unfolds.
“It is also highly likely that the El Nino will cause a temporary spike in global annual temperature, with the residual heat potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850.”
El Nino will hit as experts warn the temperature rise due to climate change already threatens global weather patterns.
Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services and co-author of ‘Surviving Extreme Weather’, said: “The effects of El Nino won’t be felt until later in the year, but it will cause a transference of heat and energy across the world.
“This comes on top of climate change, so we are looking at a double threat.”