Britain’s early spring heat could be a taster of things to come with growing hopes of a three-month summer scorcher.
Despite the wet and chilly end to May, long-range outlooks hint towards above-average temperatures returning through summer.
A slim chance of a ‘cool season’ is far outweighed by a more than double the normal chance of ‘hot’ weather, according to Government forecasters.
The change in fortune will be driven by global weather patterns and an overall trend of warmer weather across the UK.
Met Office’s latest summer outlook
Met Office
A Met Office spokesman said: “There is an increase in the likelihood of hotter than normal conditions.
“This doesn’t necessarily mean that the UK will see heatwaves and heat-related impacts, but the risk of these is higher than normal.
“Drivers relevant to the current outlook are the warming of the UK climate consistent with wider global warming trends.”
The Met Office’s three-month outlook suggests a 45 per cent chance of a ‘hot’ season with just a five per cent chance of a ‘cool’ season.
Rainfall is likely to be around average, although heavy thunderstorms could trigger surface-water flooding, it warns.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:The Met Office’s outlook, which provides a guide rather than a cast-iron prediction, follows the same trend as other long-range forecasts.
According to Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company, high pressure to the north of Europe will bring sunnier conditions to the Continent.
The hottest temperatures are likely to be across southeastern Europe, they say, driven by unusually high sea-surface temperatures.
However, in previous years, the UK has frequently caught a lick of the European heatwave flames.
Dr Todd Crawford, meteorologist for Atmospheric G2, said: “The summer is expected to be characterised by high pressure displaced farther north than usual, with sunnier and less windy conditions expected in most locations.”
But in the meantime, cooler in the east, warmer inland
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The sizzling forecasts come after an unusually warm UK spring period saw temperatures breach 29C.
An east-west split through the end of spring will bring a chilly wind across North Sea coasts, with the best of the weather further inland.
A Met Office spokesman said: “As we head into the bank holiday weekend and following week, a change in weather type is expected.
“More unsettled conditions are likely to develop, with weather systems moving in from the Atlantic.
“The change is likely to happen first in the northwest, probably later on Friday or through Saturday.”
However, a return to heat could be just around the corner with temperatures poised to rocket.
Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services and social commentator, said: “The expectation is that we are not going to lose the heat for long and that there will be a bounce back within the coming weeks.
“I don’t think that the recent weather is a sign that we have drawn the curtain on the chance of a warm and sunny summer, rather, it is more likely to start turning hotter than average before long.
“This is the result of increasing temperatures overall, consistent with climate change.”
