Reform’s revolution mapped: The 63 seats set to kickstart Nigel Farage’s political crusade as support surges

Labour support was almost completely unchanged at 33 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats and Green Party also holding much of their respective support.

However, the opinion poll could help Farage power through with his political crusade and make sure Reform UK supplants the Tories as the main party on the centre-right.

Electoral Calculus’s predictor indicated the populist party would pick up 12 more seats.

Reform UK would likely gain Basildon & Billericay, Bridgwater, Bridlington & the Wolds, Castle Point, Faversham & Mid Kent, Havant, Hornchurch & Upminster, Isle of Wight East and Maidstone & Malling from the Tories.

Labour would suffer defeat at the hands of Reform UK challengers in Llanelli, South West Norfolk and Sittingbourne & Sheppey.

GB News can also reveal that Reform UK now trails Labour or Tory incumbents by one per cent or less in six more seats.

Despite finishing third in Dudley and Bognor Regis & Littlehampton on July 4, Reform UK would now trail Labour by around a hundred votes in the knife-edge three-way marginals.

Amber Valley, Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr, Rayleigh & Wickford and Wyre Forest are also in the populist party’s sights.

Reform UK was less than three per cent behind in a further 21 seats, GB News analysis of the We Think survey has shown.

Chatham & Aylesford, Cannock Chase, Warwickshire North & Bedworth, Folkestone, Louth & Horncastle, Brentwood & Ongar, Braintree, Brigg & Immingham, Suffolk West, Tamworth, Torridge & West Devon, Suffolk Central & Ipswich North, Maldon, Suffolk South, Bromsgrove, Daventry, Spelthorne, Wrekin, Romford, Hereford & South Herefordshire and Staffordshire Moorlands would all now come into play for Farage.

Another 14 seats put the populist party five per cent or less behind, taking the total haul of major targets to 58.

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Tipton & Wednesbury, Burnley, Rochester & Strood, Hull East, Makerfield, Sleaford & North Hykeham, Ashford, Gainsborough, Aldridge-Brownhills, South Holland & The Deepings, Birmingham Hodge Hill, Leicestershire South, Sussex Weald, Herne Bay & Sandwich, Harwich & North Essex and Broadland & Fakenham could all prove slightly out of reach for Reform UK but insiders will certainly hope to make inroads ahead of the 2029 General Election.

Following the 2024 General Election, political commentators pointed out how Reform UK finished second in 98 seats.

However, GB News understands Reform UK insiders have opted for a more calculated approach ahead of the next election.

Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf told GB News: "This years' General Election was just the start for Reform.

“We are now professionalising at speed and ready to hold both of the legacy parties to account for decades of failure.”

He added: “Reform are fastest growing political party in the UK and are here to stay.”

Labour majorities in some of those seats appear all but insurmountable and there are a number of three-way marginals where Reform UK will have a better chance of emerging victorious.

Experts omitted the result in Basildon & Billericay, where Reform UK finished third but just 1,551 votes behind ex-Tory Chairman Richard Holden.

They instead opted to include seats such as Bootle and Liverpool Walton where Labour’s current majority exceeds 20,000.

GB News’ analysis has suggested 43 of Farage’s top 58 targets saw the party finish third last month, with just 14 putting Reform UK second and one even resulting in the rebranded Brexit Party ending up fourth.

Despite falling outside of a five-point deficit, a surge in support would also ensure dozens of other seats see Reform UK emerge as the main challenger to either the Tories or Labour.

Sevenoaks, Witham, Cambridgeshire North East and Orpington were all seats where Reform UK supplanted Labour to become the main opposition to the incumbent Tory MP.

Dover & Deal and Nuneaton would all now see Farage’s allies pose the biggest threat to sitting Labour MPs.

Several 2024 Reform UK candidates expressed their optimism about the populist party’s future.

Sandra Daniells, who received 10,262 votes as Reform UK’s candidate in Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, told GB News: “With a stronger structure in place to fight the next election, and the locals in the interim, we could achieve success.”

“This time around was challenging, with no resources in place and the election being called rather unexpectedly it was a case of me doing my best with a few volunteers.”

She added: “As the profile of Reform becomes stronger and Labour make themselves more and more unpopular while Tories lack direction and clarity, I think we have a real chance.”

Daniells, like many other Reform UK candidates, stressed the populist party is hoping to establish a local association ahead of contesting the next set of local elections.

Bridlington & the Wolds candidate Maria Bowtell was also clear about the ambitions of the party.

“Bridlington is absolutely on the list and there is a lot of hard work going on in the background,” she said. “We are absolutely here to stay and I have so many willing volunteers contacting me daily to show support and ask how they can help.”

Bowtell added: “I worked very hard with a tiny budget and got just shy of 25 per cent of the vote in six weeks. Imagine six months or a year. I wouldn’t want to go against Reform in Bridlington at the next general election, or at the local elections for that matter.”

Maxwell Harrison, who stood as Reform UK's Faversham & Mid Kent candidate on July 4, directly addressed the professionalisation of the populist party.

He told GB News: "Now that the party is looking at setting up branches, now that it is looking at having some sort of democratisation as well, it's only going to help us more.

"Millions of voters, in my opinion, did not vote for Reform but shared our views because they felt Reform wasn't ready. The election has gone past and now we are presenting a professional brand that works for ordinary people up and down the country."

Harrison, who was out door-knocking for an upcoming council by-election in Kent, added: "When Reform is able to offer a viable alternative with good structure and good governance, it will connect with more and more people and we will see Reform win many, many seats."

The 24-year-old was optimistic about his chances of winning in Faversham & Mid Kent in the next election and even predicted Reform UK would become the official opposition.

However, the shift in support reflected in We Think’s latest opinion poll poses further problems for the Tory Party.

Reform UK’s 58 targets include 39 seats won by the Tories and 18 picked up by Labour.

Labour would gain Beverley & Holderness, Bromley & Biggin Hill, Devon Central, Exmouth & Exeter East, Fylde and Tatton.

Sir Keir Starmer would likely also claim victory in seats earmarked as Reform UK targets, including Broadland & Fakenham, Harwich & North Essex, Wrekin and Wyre Forest.

The Tory Party, who would be projected to lose an additional 22 seats, would currently experience the humiliating loss of former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in Godalming & Ash.

The Liberal Democrats would likely overturn Hunt’s 1.6 per cent majority to win by 0.7 per cent, with Reform UK’s local surge proving decisive to another Blue Wall victory for Sir Ed Davey.

However, Tory insiders stress a lot can change ahead of the 2029 General Election as the Conservative Party holds yet another leadership contest.

”It’s far too early to worry about opinion polls,” a Conservative insider told GB News. “We will have a new leader soon and that will bring us a boost.”