Reform UK's popularity continues to grow as party predicted to win a majority for the first time - but have they won 'four years too early'?
GB NEWS
New polling has found the party would secure a majority if the General Election was held today
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Reform UK may have won the General Election "four years too early" as the party continues to surge in the polls with voters jumping on board so much Nigel Farage could end up with a majority Government.
According to a poll conducted by The Telegraph, the party would secure 331 seats, clearing the 326-MP bar for a Commons majority, if the election was held today.
The latest polling found that nearly a third of British adults would vote in favour of Reform, which has doubled since July.
In the wake of Reform's conference over the weekend, Mr Farage said: "We are the party on the rise".
However, Head of Quantitative Research at Public First, Adam Drummond, told GB News the "impossible question" of whether Reform could continue its current momentum for another four years was somewhat of a mystery.
He said: "Just as it's perfectly possible to see Britain voting for Nigel Farage - or Farage winning a majority off the back of a third of the vote - it's also possible to see a story in which 2025 is peak Reform.
"And the Government starts to get its act together and deliver some noticeable improvements over the next four years."
Thirty eight per cent of respondents believe Reform would be the best at handling asylum and immigration
|YouGov
Whether that happens remains to be unclear as the Labour Government continues its downwards trajectory in the polls and its drastic Cabinet reshuffle following former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner's resignation over underpaying £40,000 in stamp duty.
But, Mr Drummond said it was "very possible that Reform get a majority Government in 2029".
"The electorate is more willing to switch parties than ever, but it's also possible that they've 'won' the election four years too early and will struggle to maintain momentum as they come under more scrutiny."
As it currently stands, the Telegraph's Election Predictor - which correctly predicted 87 per cent of all seats in last year's General Election - found 31.1 per cent of people would vote for Reform.
Forty eight per cent of respondents believe Nigel Farage is dong well as Reform UK Leader
|YouGov
That number is drastically ahead of Labour, dropping from just more than 35 per cent at last year's election to 20.5 per cent.
Fortunately for them, that is almost three points ahead of the Tories on 17.6 per cent. The Liberal Democrats sit on 13.2 per cent and the Greens on 8.9 per cent - however, those two parties have grown since the election unlike Labour and the Tories.
When analysing the data, Mr Drummond said "some polls are more bullish on Reform than others".
However, the "overall picture is fairly consistent".
Sir Keir Starmer is falling in popularity in the polls
| GETTY"Labour (is) losing a big chunk of their vote to 'don't know', the Lib Dems, Greens and SNP," he added.
"While Reform have gained from the Tories and people who didn't vote in 2024."
Mr Drummond indicated that as of the last election, the roughly five per cent of the country who voted for Reform "shall we say, have extreme views on immigration, plus the more regular Farage voters, and those who might have stuck with the Tories if it had been a closer contest".
"Since then though, that shift from Tory to Reform has continued at pace but they've also picked up the large bulk of the disillusioned vote: people who don't particularly love Farage or even agree with Reform on most thing, but they think the Tories failed, Labour are failing, and are willing to roll the dice on what's next."
So much so, according to YouGov, Mr Farage is now more popular than both Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch.
Nearly half of the public - 48 per cent - believe Mr Farage is doing well as party leader.
But, just one in five say the same for Sir Keir.
What Mr Drummond believes Reform is "doing best" is telling a consistent story.
"Combined with a sympathetic media ecosystem, means that they're able to tie voters' concerns about the state of the country to a drumbeat of stories about immigration to which they are able to present themselves as the solution," he said.
According to YouGov, 56 per cent of respondents say immigration and asylum are the most important issues facing the UK.
That figure hasn't been higher since the height of the European migrant crisis in 2015.
Ahead of Reform's conference, 44 per cent of respondents to an August YouGov poll found that the party was "doing the most to set the political agenda".