Small swings in nature-conscious constituencies could see Labour lose a significant number of seats at the next election, a bombshell report has revealed.
Commissioned by ecological consultancy Arbtech, the poll of almost 10,000 people warns that as many as 40 Labour-held constituencies are at risk if the Government’s controversial Planning and Infrastructure Bill moves ahead in its current form.
In some areas, a swing of just one to two per cent could tip the balance in favour of other parties.
The report exposes growing unrest in key marginal seats, where voters passionately defend green areas and oppose housing plans viewed by some as “cash to trash,” where local areas are significantly impacted by development, and where house builders take no action to protect the local habitat and wildlife.
Many of Labour’s newly won constituencies fall into areas under real pressure to build new homes, but where residents are still deeply protective of their local green spaces.
A major problem is the proposed Nature Recovery Fund (NRF), which allows developers to pay money into a scheme instead of repairing environmental damage locally.
Green campaigners have likened it to carbon offsetting but argue it's much worse: “You can’t offset animals being injured or killed,” one campaigner said.
Robert Oates, CEO and Founder of Arbtech, said: “The tremors set off by the Planning and Infrastructure Bill are forging an electoral fault line.
"Small swings in nature-conscious seats could undo Labour’s gains from 2024 and hand victories to their opponents.
Ed Miliband and net zero cost Labour certain swing constituencies
|PA
“Our research shows voters are not anti-development. They want new homes, but they also expect fairness and livable communities.
"The Government promised that building more homes wouldn’t come at the expense of environmental protections, but the current text guarantees exactly that.”
Oates added: “Ministers must now listen to voters and strengthen this Bill, or risk alienating the very communities they’ll need most in a few short years.”
According to the polling numbers, Labour’s marginal seats such as Mid Derbyshire, North-East Hertfordshire, and Tamworth face the greatest pressure, with widespread local opposition to the Nature Recovery Fund (NRF).
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Many of Labour’s newly won constituencies fall into areas under real pressure to build new homes, but where residents are still deeply protective of their local green spaces
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Voters in these areas, many of whom flipped from Conservative to Labour in 2024, strongly reject policies that allow for the destruction of local habitats in favour of distant compensation schemes.
The opposition isn’t confined to areas with large amounts of green spaces. In urban-rural mixed seats like Darlington and Stoke-on-Trent South, the research found voters consistently prioritise the local environment and wildlife over the current solutions being proposed.
In the east, marginals including Suffolk Coastal, South Norfolk, and South-West Norfolk are also seeing sharp resistance, especially in communities where voters are deeply connected to their local environment and wary of “top-down” planning.
In response, Shadow Environment Secretary, Victoria Atkins MP, said: “Labour is handing sweeping new powers to Natural England and local authorities, allowing them to seize private land — including people’s gardens — without fair compensation or accountability.
“This isn’t just a bad policy. It’s a dangerous step toward state control of private property, all in pursuit of Ed Miliband’s unrealistic net zero agenda and Labour’s plan to concrete over the green belt.”
Atkins vowed: “The Conservatives oppose this modern-day Marxism. We will be reviewing the regulators and rules in the department to ensure the next Conservative government can scrap harmful planning rules and protect the rights of private citizens.”
The report makes clear that there is widespread voter opposition to the Planning and Infrastructure Bill in its current form, with areas of the proposed legislation, such as the Nature Recovery Fund, presenting a major risk to Labour in its newest battlegrounds if amendments are not made to the bill currently in the House of Lords before making its way back to the commons.
If the party is seen as enabling policies that damage local environments, it could lose the support of swing voters who helped secure its recent gains.
40 Labour MPs are at risk of losing their seats
|ARBTECH
With polling numbers at an all-time low, the Prime Minister’s party is under pressure to change its stance.
How Labour handles environmental issues could have a big impact on the next election result.
A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said: “Our landmark Planning and Infrastructure Bill will see a win-win for both nature and housebuilding.
“We will keep protecting our most valuable habitats and species as we speed up the construction of housing and critical infrastructure and get Britain building again.”