Keir Starmer staves off Labour revolt after 'accidental victory' – but PM faces new crisis in weeks

The Labour leader, who still finds his party languishing in the opinion polls, entered March on the precipice of some potentially premiership-defining moments.

Having faced down Scottish leader Anas Sarwar's one-man revolt in early February, Sir Keir was left reeling from defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

A bombshell dossier on Lord Mandelson's appointment as Britain's ambassador to the United States plunged No10 into even deeper chaos.

However, off the back of his fifth reset since entering power in July 2024, Sir Keir has finally managed to curry favour with Labour MPs.

He did not need to hastily organise a Chequers chilli and wine night, or prepare for a make-or-break appearance behind closed doors in front of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

Instead, Sir Keir did what many in Labour, and at one stage the PM himself, had been calling for: distancing his position from Donald Trump's.

Over the last fortnight, US President has lashed out at his "friend" after the UK initially refused to give the US access to RAF bases to launch strikes on the Islamic Republic.

"Keir (Starmer) is no Winston Churchill," Mr Trump said beside a bust of the nation's wartime hero.

The immediate answer from Labour MPs inside Westminster was the frankly spoken New Yorker is no Franklin D. Roosevelt, either.

The PM ruffled the Republican's feathers even more after rejecting his request for direct support in the Middle East.

"We will not be drawn into the wider war," Sir Keir said on Monday.

While Mr Trump might think Labour MPs yearn for their own Churchillian figure, the PM's indecision appears to have abated an imminent revolt.

A veteran Labour MP told the People's Channel: "Keir's position is getting a lot of support from both the PLP and even more so among party members."

Another backbencher added: "Most would be unhappy to think that anyone was agitating for a leadership contest."

However, left-wing Labour rebels have not downed tools just yet, with a handful still putting pressure on the PM to resign.

"Keir did the right and obvious thing," one rebel MP told GB News.

"It shouldn't require a medal, and it doesn't mean he's now suddenly fit to be Prime Minister. He isn't."

His critics point out his revolt-relieving decision is comparable to Boris Johnson's final stand on Ukraine.

Mr Johnson, who was already facing calls to quit over Partygate, was given breathing space of just 133 days until Tory MPs ultimately decided the Chris Pincher scandal obliterated their remaining loyalty to his steadfast support of Kyiv.

Yet again, the public appears to agree with the PM, albeit without affording Sir Keir a noticeable poll boost.

Seven in 10 Britons oppose the UK joining the US's offensive, while only 17 per cent support getting involved in the conflict, according to YouGov.

Nevetheless, while Sir Keir believes his principles on Iran "are shared by the British people", just 37 per cent think he is handling the crisis well, with 41 per cent believing it is going badly.

Merlin Strategy founder Scarlett Maguire suggested Sir Keir's response was more in line with the public mood than many of his rivals, particularly given the nation's widespread dislike for Mr Trump.

The polling guru commented: "Keir Starmer’s response is more in line with public sentiment than other parties' initial reactions were.

"The public remains uneasy about involvement in conflicts overseas, especially when there could be serious consequences for the cost of living here."

However, she also suggested Sir Keir's "Love Actually" moment comes with its difficulties.

Ms Maguire said: "Trump remains unpopular with much of the British public, and there is some desire for the Prime Minister to not just follow the President’s foreign policy agenda blindly.

"That being said, the public is also uneasy about making an unnecessary enemy out of America and worries about this country’s military capabilities and vulnerabilities without strong allies."

Fears about Britain's military capabilities have also raised concerns about national security looking forward.

Sir Keir used to lament Mr Johnson's alleged "dither and delay" mentality, but the tables have turned on the PM.

Indeed, the UK is now allowing the US to use British bases for "defensive" strikes on Iranian missile sites, prompting Mr Trump to accuse the PM of "taking far too long" to come to the decision.

And it came as something of an embarrassment to many HMS Dragon was only halfway to Cyprus some two weeks after Mr Trump first struck Tehran, leaving the UK in the dust compared to France's response.

Stuart Fawcett, a former Royal Navy officer, accused Sir Keir of letting down the UK's allies by lacking political willpower.

He stated: "We've deserted the basis of our values, standing together with our allies and military intervention. It's an unpleasant necessity of nation-states."

However, ex-defence chiefs have also suggested Sir Keir's hands were all but tied by the "hollowing out" of the armed forces, handing the PM only an accidental victory with his own party faithful.

General Richard Dannatt, who served as Chief of the General Staff from 2006 to 2009, added: "This really just illustrates the dire state of our defence capability that, as we all know, for the last 30-odd years, since the end of the Cold War, successive governments from all political parties have hollowed out defence.

"They've taken peace dividend after peace dividend. And now, when you come to a serious issue, a crisis moment like this, the risks have come home to roost.

"And the fact that we can't send just one of our Type 45 air defence destroyers on an important mission really speaks volumes.

"The current Government and the previous Government, they should hang their heads in shame."

The number of soldiers enlisted in the British Army has decreased drastically over the past few decades, with the Royal Navy's capacity to deploy destroyers also being limited due to maintenance cycles and propulsion issues.

Such fears prompted Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to complete his own Iran U-turn.

Having previously called for the "gloves to come off", Mr Farage has since insisted: "I, as leader, am saying to you, if we can’t even defend Cyprus, let’s not get ourselves involved in another foreign war.”

And Sir Keir is not expected to receive the 133-day luxury afforded to Mr Johnson.

A Labour rebel texts: "I think May 7 will be a reminder that he's hopeless."

One other Labour source added: "I've long been a believer that war makes weak leaders look strong, but ultimately the fact remains that there is no one inspiring enough to take over just yet."

However, ex-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is expected to make a tilt for the leadership at some stage, although Britain's News Channel understands her ongoing tax dispute needs to be resolved before she can fire the starting gun.

May 7 is expected to deliver Sir Keir his third electoral bloody nose since romping to victory nearly two years ago, with Runcorn and Helsby, as well as Gorton and Denton, proving Labour is haemorrhaging votes to the left and right.

Elections in Scotland and Wales will likely deliver a similar verdict, as surveys suggest Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party face a tough challenge from Reform UK in the two once-staunchly Labour corners of Celtic Britain.

And England looks set to prove equally as catastrophic for Sir Keir.

Bombe projections puts Labour on course to lose 1,740 wards, which is significantly more than the expected net losses inflicted on the Tories or Liberal Democrats.

Alarm bells will undoubtedly be ringing inside Labour HQ over who will likely benefit from the party's demise, with Reform UK expected to pick up 1,508 wards and the Greens adding 586 to its ever-growing tally.

Looking ahead to May 7, Ms Maguire suggested Sir Keir cannot count on leverage from his stance on Iran to stave off an electoral bloodbath.

Ms Maguire said: "We have seen a small bounce for Keir Starmer in the polls, however, he remains overwhelmingly unpopular.

"It is unlikely that they can use the ongoing crisis in the Middle East as a way to turn around their fortunes, especially if the cost of living here gets worse as a result."

She added: "Internally, Keir Starmer's position does seem to be stablising relative to earlier in the year."

"The question will be whether he is able to survive what is likely to be a very bad night for Labour on May 7."

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