One thing is more than certain: had Reform UK not been in existence, Shabana Mahmood would never have made yesterday’s statement to the dismay of so many of Starmer’s backbenchers.
Nigel Farage has an affinity with the chap on the Clapham omnibus, which is to say the ordinary voter who now thinks it reasonable rather than racist to want to control the unresisted flood of illegal migrants arriving on our shores on an almost daily basis.
Unfortunately for Mahmood, that vision of deterrence and control is not shared by the left of her Party, who see it as less an answer to Reform and more of a surrender.
Of course, the proposals are not particularly bright, as most will be scuppered if we do not leave the ECHR, and she has no plans to do that. Worse, the idea of confiscating assets, including personal jewellery, is redolent of the worst racial persecution in the last century.
It speaks volumes of the desperation to which this government is now sinking that it would even risk such a comparison.
The proposals will become law because no matter how many Labour MPs rebel, the Tories will make sure the package gets through, just as Labour MPs gave Cameron his law on gay marriage when the majority of his own MPs voted against. So where will that leave Labour dissidents?
Shabana Mahmood is simply performing. She is protecting the juggernaut that broke our border - Ann Widdecombe
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If they vote against, they still cannot defeat the measures and will be seen by many of their own voters as soft on immigration abuse, as being in denial about the scale of the problem.
A recent poll revealed that more than half of the respondents considered immigration a serious national issue.
There will be precious little sympathy for those who dismiss that fear.
A lot of Labour backbenchers will therefore feel boxed in, with their own consciences at war with both their own voters and their own government.
Had the Tories come up with such ideas, Labour would have been one united pack, howling them down and crying “racist” loudly enough to be heard in outer space.
Now they are divided and helpless as their own leaders try to out-Reform Reform with little prospect of success.
I do not disagree with Nigel on much, but I have always maintained that the election will not come about in 2027. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas.
Meanwhile, these proposals will meet the same fate as the Rwanda scheme, with the same consequent sense of letdown amongst the general public.
Whoever is leading the party then (and if I were the betting type, I would wager a magnum of champagne to a glass of sour orange juice that Starmer will be gone before the end of 2026) will face the unpalatable choice of leaving the ECHR or continuing with a profoundly chaotic asylum system.
Shabana Mahmood has produced a set of unworkable proposals which help neither the country nor her Party. Indeed, this could just be the moment when Labour starts to follow the Tories on that slippery slope towards oblivion.
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