In just over two years, President Milei of Argentina has, through radically libertarian social and economic measures and directives, significantly improved his country’s prospects and importance on the international stage.
His own persona and prestige have enabled a close relationship with President Trump, whose administration views Argentina as a critical ally in limiting Chinese and Russian influence and penetration in South America and Antarctica.
As part of this posture, Milei, with the encouragement of the US, wants to improve his country’s military capability and utility, which is currently assessed as incapable of defending the country.
Milei is on record as saying, "There are no world powers without military power. There is no country that counts in the international context if it can’t defend its borders".
Consequently, he has already negotiated the acquisition of F-16 fighter-ground attack aircraft from Denmark as well as Stryker fighting vehicles from the US as part of a defence modernisation programme that drives interoperability with American forces.
However, in the wake of the Falklands War, Britain imposed a worldwide ban that prevents any weapon system with British-made components from being sold to Argentina if it enhances the country’s fighting power.
As a result, Milei, in a combined diplomatic and commercial initiative, is seeking closer ties with Britain and to have the arms export embargo lifted or at least relaxed. He has been encouraged by his close relationship and similar geopolitical outlook with President Trump, whose administration values Argentina as a vital ally against Chinese and Russian penetration in the South Atlantic and Antarctica.
This conciliatory approach includes a likely official visit to Britain next April and the provision of repeated reassurances about the Argentine attitude to the Falklands.
Milei is aware that Argentina’s armed forces are in no position to invade or conduct offensive operations against the Falklands, and, despite promising to increase Argentinian military spending and capacity and reaffirming Argentina’s claims to the islands, has repeatedly ruled out acquiring them by force.
Britain will face a much bigger stick if it makes an enemy of Argentina - Chris Parry
|Getty Images
The British approach to the security of the islands relies on a minimal military presence to deter Argentinian aggression against the Falklands, South Georgia and its Antarctic territories and to ensure the integrity of their offshore zone and airspace.
It primarily comprises a flight of four Typhoon FGR4 fighters for Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) and a Sky Sabre ground-based air defence system for air defence, an infantry company, and a patrol vessel, with appropriate logistics, infrastructure, and support services.
However, in the event of Argentinian aggression, the defence of the islands depends critically on rapid reinforcement from Britain’s home-based wider military resources.
Given the distances involved and the current investment in and condition of Britain’s armed forces, it is doubtful whether this reinforcement can be considered credible in the short term if Argentina’s military capacity and capabilities are significantly improved.
Therefore, the UK Government and British defence planners will need to calibrate carefully the risks associated with Argentina’s improved relationship with the US and UK, in conjunction with Argentina’s ability to threaten the islands once again.
It is a common principle that threats generally comprise context, capability, and intentions, with the main perceived danger to the Falklands coming in future from a change in regime and political attitude in a country that has rearmed sufficiently to pose a credible threat.
The constant concern for politicians, in cost-benefit terms, would be the prospect of an Argentina that, to largely quote Theodore Roosevelt’s memorable phrase, speaks softly and carries a progressively bigger stick over time.
More From GB News