What is the point of Rishi Sunak? Engaging chap. Devoted dad. Technocratic wonk. And with enough family money to buy Rwanda’s annual coffee crop several times over.
But none of that qualifies him to be Britain’s PM, which is why Tory MPs are increasingly asking this question. If sources close to him are to believed he has also now realised he’s a bit of a klutz when it comes to politics.
The latest opinion polls are giving Tory MPs the vapours as Labour’s lead keeps steadily increasing. The Electoral Calculus poll-of-polls leaves the Tories with just 90 seats after the election.
That would mean GB News favourities Jacob Rees-Mogg and Esther McVey losing their seats and leadership hopefuls Grant Shapps, Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick out on their ear and out of the running.
Penny Mordaunt has been rumoured to be a likely candidate to replace Sunak
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Which means a post-election leadership contest would, on current form, be a battle between Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and former Home Secretary Priti Patel. Bookies have just reduced Patel’s odds from 14/1 - 8/1.
I hear a campaign team for Mordaunt run by a former Cabinet minister is being formed, but they are not plotting to have her replace Sunak before the election. The plan is being drawn up for after the apocalypse.
And Sunak will be there until polling day unless a no confidence vote is accidentally triggered by letters reaching the 53 threshold, or the PM unexpectedly quits to spend more time with his coffee. Should it help, Prime Minister, experts recommend the Red Bourbon Arabica from beans grown around Lake Kivu.
Even if Tory MPs feel the PM does not have the skill set for the job they thought he had, a leadership challenge now would be utter madness leading to an immediate General Election.
Whoever took over would still go into the campaign 20 plus points behind Labour. Only lemmings looking longingly at a cliff edge would willingly contemplate that kind of annihilation.
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What is the point of Rishi Sunak, Nigel Nelson asks
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The PM was hoping to go to the country on May 2 and he certainly laid the groundwork - last year’s National Insurance cut and a Spring deadline for migrant planes taking off for Rwanda.
But slashing NI made no difference to the polls and a second reduction in the Budget hasn’t either. And with Rwanda stalled the plan just wasn’t working.
Only if people feel a little better off by October will some Tory seats be saved that would otherwise be lost.
Sunak is now banking on the £1.02 an hour rise in the minimum wage, the energy price cap falling by £238, benefits up 6.7 per cent and pensions rising by 8.5 per cent thanks to the triple lock. Interest rates should also come down over the summer making mortgage repayments easier.
On the downside council tax is rising by 4.99 per cent, water bills are going up 6 per cent, dental charges up 4 per cent, TV licences £10.50 more a year...and a first class stamp will set you back £1.35.
And for every £1 saved in NI cuts the Treasury is taking back £1.90 because of the freeze in tax thresholds. This has caught seven million people in its fiscal dragnet - four million of them paying tax for the first time and three million coughing up more as they are bounced into higher bands.
But whatever the economy might be up to, the major driver of Election24 is time for a change. Margaret Thatcher lasted 13 years, so did New Labour. The Tories are already a year beyond that use-by date.
And that is the point of Rishi Sunak. If he leads his troops into battle and they get massacred they can blame him.
But if they topple him beforehand they will have no one to blame but themselves.