There is always a tendency to describe shock British by-election results as seismic. Arguably, if a by-election isn’t dramatic, then something is going strangely wrong in our political system, given the customary pressure governments are under in mid-term, and which they provide a release from.
But something feels very different this time after a Gorton & Denton result that should truly send tremors through a political establishment unused to the arrival of genuine multi-party politics.
For there are now at least five parties that are clearly capable of winning parliamentary seats in various parts of England. Plus two more in Scotland and Wales. The days of Labour and Conservative dominance are well and truly over.
But so might be the basis of the whole electoral compact that the British people have become accustomed to. For this by-election has exposed the ugly side of demographic transition in our country, with the rise of nakedly sectarian voting and claims of “family voting” – not a benign phenomenon, but where a member of a family influences or directs others to vote in contravention of the idea of the secret ballot – blighting the election.
According to official election observers Democracy Volunteers, the by-election saw a record incidence of “family voting” taking place, with obvious implications for the integrity of the ballot. Added to this has been the worrying nature of Green Party campaigning during the contest.
The Greens – who were, of course, the victors in a seat that had a 29.6 per cent Muslim population in the 2021 census – made no secret of their open appeal to voters from this background.
A by-now infamous campaign video that was filmed entirely in Urdu and featured gratuitous shots of hate figures in the Muslim community, such as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the by-now obligatory picture of Gaza rubble, was only the most blatant example of this Green tactic.
The real winners of Gorton and Denton are not the sectarian dog whistlers being paraded around - Alan Mendoza | Getty Images
The sectarian dog whistling and family voting concerns taken together, therefore, constitute a quite sinister direction for British politics to be taking.
If it is to be the case that there will henceforth be a race to the bottom to appeal to changing demographics in the UK, then national unity will be the victim.
In the worst case, it could easily be argued that British customs and the British way of doing things are being replaced by those of South Asia before our very eyes.
Obviously, the Greens winning and Reform coming second creates a headache for the two traditional establishment parties. Keir Starmer can neither claim he is the only way of stopping Reform nor that the latest reboot of his troubled government has had any impact.
Labour’s loss – and they lost badly in a seat that has been comfortably theirs for nearly a century – suggests that they are on course for a titanic defeat in May’s local elections.
It is difficult to see Starmer surviving long after that. Meanwhile, the Conservatives fell significantly in vote share and lost their deposit.
This may not be traditional Conservative territory, but all the talk of a “Kemi Badenoch bounce” has crumpled on first contact with electoral reality.
They appear headed for entrenched minority party status on the right of British politics, which will no doubt be confirmed in May.
Which takes us to the real winners: Reform. Yes, the Greens won the by-election. But everyone realises that the effort they placed into contesting this one seat will not be replicable in May across the country. The Greens will do well, no doubt, but they are not going to emerge as a viable government.
Reform, however, will. For Reform to come second in a seat which is demographically and ideologically structurally unfriendly to the Reform message is highly significant.
If Reform can do this well in unpropitious territory, the possibilities in other areas of the country – even those only slightly more Reform-friendly on paper – look highly promising in May.
And once Reform emerges as the government-in-waiting after that key mid-term test, crucially with strength across all the constituent parts of Great Britain, the starting gun will finally have been fired on the next General Election campaign.
This is a race that Gorton & Denton show that Reform is more than ready for. And one, on current trends, it is going to win.
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