The future of the state pension is in question as analysts warn Britain "can't keep pretending the the triple lock is sustainable" following recent figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Based on the ONS latest wage growth figures for the three months to July 2025 fell to 4.7 per cent, which means it will likely be the rate used to determine this next payment hike for the retirement benefit.
Under the triple lock, state pension payment rates are raised annually depending on either wage growth for the three months to July, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate for September or 2.5 per cent; whichever is highest.
The full new state pension will rise to £12,534.60 annually, which means the benefit's full new amount will likely exceed the tax-free personal allowance of £12,570 by 2027.
Think tanks are calling for the state pension triple lock to be reviewed over 'sustainability concerns'
|GETTY / OBR
According to analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the state pension triple lock is costing the UK Government around £10billion more than initially projected.
Think tanks are sounding the alarm over the growing expense on the public purse, with many economists and analysts urging for reform to be introduced as soon as possible.
Robert Colville, the director of the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), posted on X that policymakers "can't keep pretending this is sustainable".w
He previously told GB News: "The problem we have as a country is essentially, if you're looking at your household budget, the four or five biggest spending items that the country does are the NHS, working age welfare benefits, pension spending, defence, education, debt interest.
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What has the impact of the state pension triple lock been on the public's finances | OBR "Of those six things, all of them a part from education are going up by more than the economy. Our spending on those things is growing by more than what we're earning. That's obviously unaffordable. We're going bankrupt pretty quickly, which is why Rachel Reeves keeps on having to come back and say, 'I need more taxes.'
"There's another sort of fairness point. We all care about pensioners. We have this image that pensioners are this poor little granny sitting at home, who needs her Winter Fuel Allowance.
"That is true of a lot of people. As a group, pensioners are actually the richest cohort of people that have ever existed."
Among the reforms some have proposed include replacing the triple lock with another model, raising the state pension earlier than expected or means testing retirement benefits.
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Reacting to Mr Colville's comments on X, former Conservative Government minister Robert Colville described the policy expert's as "really important".
He added: "The politics of the triple lock are complicated. The economics are not. We cannot have a sensible conversation about avoiding national bankruptcy without changes that preserve dignity in retirement but restore affordability."
Ahead of this year's Autumn Budget, the Labour Government has pledged to keep the triple lock in place until the end of this parliamentary term, which could last until 2029.
Pensions Minister Torsten Bell has asserted the payment uprate mechanism is "staying" and new Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has supported the policy.
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Pensions Minister Torsten Bell has promised to keep the triple lock in place | PAHe stated: "This Labour government is committed to maintaining the Triple Lock for the course of this Parliament.
"It is estimated that will mean a rise in the State Pension of around £1,900 a year by the end of the Parliament.
"That’s a commitment from the Labour government to the UK’s pensioners. It's something that we said we'd do at the election and something that we will keep to."
The Autumn Budget is scheduled to take place on November 26, 2025.