As the Tories go to war over migration once again, next week is make or break - analysis by Millie Cooke
Mogg: Sunak has been 'hoist by his own petard' on Rwanda
The Conservative Party is preparing for war over the Government's Rwanda Bill. While it comfortably passed its second reading, by 313 votes to 269 the real fight for the party is yet to come.
At the time of the vote, the so-called "five families" on the right of the party warned that the legislation would need to go much further if they are to vote with the Government next week.
And this week, they have come to collect.
The group of MPs -backed by former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick and veteran backbencher Sir Bill Cash - published a selection of proposed amendments last night to toughen up the Bill and prevent Strasbourg from blocking flights.
The amendments will be debated and voted upon next week.
If passed, the right-wing amendments would mean ministers would be able to ignore automatically so-called last-minute “pyjama injunctions” by Strasbourg judges to stop planes deporting migrants to Rwanda.
But the One Nation caucus of MPs is already preparing their pushback.
Former Cabinet Minister Robert Buckland slammed the right-wing plans as "fundamentally unconservative" and warned that he will be putting forward his own amendments later this week.
Issuing a stark warning to the right of the party, he told GB News: "They are not acceptable. In fact, they go way too far. They show no respect for the rule of law and are fundamentally unconservative.
"They will not be supported. And I can't think of many One Nation colleagues who would."
But more worryingly for Sunak, he hit out at the bones of the bill itself, saying it has "gone way too far" and "needs to be trimmed".
This could not be more out of sync with what the right wing wants.
The liberal wing of the party may have voted with the Government in December - but like their right-wing counterparts - the third reading is where they will put up the real fight.
With amendments from both sides that are completely incompatible with one another, it is almost impossible to see how Sunak will navigate the conflict.
He has found himself caught between a rock and a hard place. The One Nationers appear to have more support than those on the right of the party - but rejecting the amendments of the "five families" is likely to come at a greater cost. The position of the One Nationers makes it much more likely that the bill will be once again stopped at the courts - and ultimately fail.
The PM is gambling on the success of this legislation - if flights take off before an election, this could lead to a poll bounce for the Tories and undermine Starmer, who has promised to repeal the legislation if he wins the keys to Downing Street.
But if it fails, it will only cement the Tories' image as a party that fails to get things done. "Unconservative" or not - the right-wing amendments are more likely to get the job done.
Next week is pivotal for Sunak, as they lay the groundwork for a policy that could shape his image at an election.
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