How France could stand in the way of Von der Leyen's bid for a second term - analysis by Millie Cooke

How France could stand in the way of Von der Leyen's bid for a second term - analysis by Millie Cooke

When Ursula Von der Leyen was first elected European Commission President, Emmanuel Macron played a central role in securing her the top job

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Millie Cooke

By Millie Cooke


Published: 15/04/2024

- 15:08

With just two months to go before the EU elections, the incumbent Commission President must not take anything for granted

When Ursula Von der Leyen was first elected European Commission President, Emmanuel Macron played a central role in securing her the top job.

But as the EU gears up to go to the polls this summer, the French President has been ambivalent in his support for Von der Leyen.


He is yet to explicitly endorse the incumbent EU President, which should be worrying for Von der Leyen given how pivotal his backing was in 2019.

To make matters worse, two of Macron's allies have publicly questioned or criticised the EU Commission President.

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Posting on social media last week, European internal market commissioner Thierry Breton took a swipe at his boss, saying: "The EPP itself does not seem to believe in its own candidate".

While Macron was said to be "furious" about the remarks, he has not publicly condemned them.

Meanwhile, his lead candidate for the European elections Valérie Hayer - and leader of the Renew party - refused to commit to backing VDL.

She told Politico: "We're in a campaign period: everyone will put forward their priorities, and we'll see on the evening of June 9th what the balance is".

Hayer added: "I won't rule out voting for her again, I won't rule out not voting for her again."

It's not exactly a glowing endorsement.

But France's reluctance to back Von der Leyen hasn't emerged in a vacuum.

As Breton said - even her own Party, the EPP appears to have doubts. Despite being the only person standing to be the EPP's lead candidate, just 80 per cent of those who voted at the party's congress in Romania last month voted to back her. Of 489 votes cast, 89 people voted against von der Leyen.

Macron's ambivalence towards Von der Leyen could well be a tactic to ensure France has leverage to secure concessions if she is re-elected and prevent her from walking into a second term with the belief she can do whatever she likes.

But given the EPP's hesitance to back their own candidate, it evidently runs deeper than just an election tactic.

With just two months to go before the EU elections, Von der Leyen must not take anything for granted.

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