'Silent' liver disease in non-drinkers set to affect 1.8 billion people by 2050 driven by obesity and diabetes

Solen Le Net

By Solen Le Net


Published: 14/04/2026

- 09:11

Metabolic liver disease produces no noticeable symptoms, meaning few people know they have it

Metabolic liver disease is set to reach epidemic proportions within the next quarter-century, according to a landmark study published in The Lancet.

The research indicates that metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, formerly termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, will affect approximately 1.8 billion individuals worldwide by 2050.


Currently, some 1.3 billion people suffer from the condition globally, representing roughly one in six of the world's population.

This marks a staggering 143 per cent surge over three decades, with cases having risen from around 500 million in 1990.

STANDING ON SCALES

Approximately 1.3 million people suffer from metabolic liver disease globally

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The projections suggest a further 42 per cent increase from present levels.

Britain has recorded the steepest rise in prevalence rates across western Europe, with cases climbing by a third between 1990 and 2023.

This 33 per cent increase places the UK ahead of other developed nations grappling with the condition.

Australia experienced a 30 per cent growth in prevalence over the same period, whilst the United States saw a 22 per cent rise.

Certain regions face particularly acute challenges, with North Africa and the Middle East reporting disproportionately elevated rates compared with other parts of the world.

The global prevalence rate reached 14,429 cases per 100,000 people in 2023, a 29 per cent increase since 1990.

Elevated blood sugar levels represent the primary driver of health complications associated with the condition, followed by high body mass index and tobacco use.

These factors underscore the strong connections between MASLD and both type 2 diabetes and obesity.

The disease affects men at higher rates than women, with the greatest prevalence observed among those aged 80 to 84.

However, the bulk of cases occur in considerably younger cohorts, predominantly affecting men between 35 and 39 years of age and women aged 55 to 59.

Researchers noted that the condition is increasingly striking younger adults as health and lifestyle patterns deteriorate.

The condition frequently produces no noticeable symptoms, meaning many individuals remain unaware they have it until tests conducted for unrelated purposes reveal the diagnosis.

When symptoms do manifest, they typically include persistent fatigue, general malaise, and discomfort beneath the ribs on the right side of the abdomen.

Treatment generally centres on modifications to diet and exercise, given the condition's association with excess weight.

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BLOOD SUGAR TEST

Elevated blood sugar levels represent the primary driver of metabolic liver disease

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The study's authors, based at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, emphasised that MASLD must be recognised as a global health priority.

They called for targeted policies, public awareness campaigns and interventions to address its mounting impact and forestall serious complications such as cirrhosis and liver cancer.