Britain’s record summer temperature could be about to fall with the ingredients in place for the hottest summer ever.
As the mercury this week rockets to 30C, experts say tropical conditions through the season could put July 2022’s 40.3C under threat.
High pressure, the driver of hot weather, combined with a southerly flow from Africa and warm ground after the hottest spring on record, will conspire to light the summer burners.
While long-range forecasts are always uncertain, confidence is growing in a record-smashing summer heatwave.
Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services, said: “Given the profile of temperatures already this year, and with the heat building over the Continent, and North Africa, which could come our way later, I think that the 40.3C record is certainly under threat this year.
“We are already seeing the possibility of the June temperature record falling this week, and this comes after the hottest spring on record, with ground temperatures already high.
“All the ingredients are there for the record to be under threat.”
Officials have warned that Britain will hit heatwave conditions – three or more days of hitting threshold temperatures – this week.
Temperature anomaly weather map shows Britain will bake under extreme heat by the weekend
WX CHARTS
High pressure and strong sunshine will be boosted by southerly winds pulling in a taste of the heatwave threatening Europe.
Temperatures by the weekend could push past the 30C mark, bringing the hottest day of the year so far.
Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Tony Wisson said: “Rising temperatures this week are a combination of several factors.
“Over the next few days, settled weather and warm sunshine will allow temperatures to rise day on day.
“Temperatures will then rise further towards the end of the week as winds turn more southerly and even warmer air over continental Europe will be drawn across the UK, and we could very well see several places exceeding 30C, which will be the highest temperatures of the year so far.”
Heat floods in from the Continent
WX CHARTS
Britain is likely to be in official heatwave territory by the weekend, he warned, with temperatures across the country persistently breaching 28C.
He said: “By the beginning of the weekend, we could very well be meeting heatwave thresholds in places.
“While the warmest temperatures are likely across London and the east of England, by Saturday heatwave thresholds could be reached across much of the Midlands, low-lying areas bordering the Peak District and even parts of east Wales.”
A brief cooldown at the start of next week is forecast to give way to another heat surge to end the month.
Temperatures going into July could creep higher, pushing Britain into record territory, experts warn.
Dale said: “Temperatures will peak at some point this weekend, then after a brief breakdown, the heat will return, and we expect to see this holding out into July.”
However, Government forecasters are more guarded on how high temperatures will rise in the run-up to mid-summer.
Wisson said “Temperatures are likely to peak in the low 30Cs Celsius this weekend before easing sometime early week.
“Some forecast models then allow temperatures to rise into the mid 30Cs of Celsius by Monday.
“While this is feasible, it is considered a lower-likelihood scenario.”
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