John Curtice highlights Labour's REAL problem after devastating poll
GB NEWS
A five-point lead could hand Nigel Farage the keys to No10, Electoral Calculus has indicated
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A top pollster has handed Nigel Farage a major boost after putting Reform UK’s support at its highest level ever.
Survation recorded a four-point post-local elections bounce for Reform, putting the populist party’s overall support at 30 per cent.
Labour stood in a distant second on 25 per cent, one-point down compared to Survation’s previous survey.
The Conservatives suffered an even steeper collapse, down four per cent to take them to 18 per cent overall.
Meanwhile, support for the Liberal Democrats and Greens appears almost unchanged from the 2024 General Election - sitting at 13 per cent and seven per cent respectively.
Electoral Calculus suggests that Reform UK would gain 329 seats, taking them to a 2015 David Cameron-style majority of 18.
Labour’s Commons contingent would collapse to its lowest number since 1935, with just 180 MPs being returned under the Survation polling.
In another historic moment, the Liberal Democrats would supplant the Tories - with Sir Ed Davey’s party suffering some losses to bring them down to 58.
Kemi Badenoch’s Tories would face a near wipeout scenario of returning just 23 MPs to the House of Commons, with the Leader of the Opposition among those losing her seat to Reform UK.
In its summary, Survation said: “Recent Survation polling shows Labour and the Conservatives on barely 40 per cent combined, with Reform overtaking Labour as the biggest party nationally on 30 per cent.
“What’s more, Runcorn demonstrated that Reform are breaking through in areas they have not ordinarily enjoyed support, with a bump following the local elections also putting them second place in Scottish Westminster voting intention polling.”
The polling firm added: “With the rise of Reform at the expense of the two major parties – taking 16 per cent of Labour’s 2024 voters and 26 per cent of the Conservatives – and the increasing presence of independent and minor party candidates, if the next general election were held today it would likely surpass 2024’s disproportional precedent.
“The reason: our electoral system does not accommodate such shifts.”
“It’s squeaky-bum time for the likes of Wes Streeting and Jess Phillips,” Survation concluded.
Reform UK has led in the past 11 opinion polls conducted nationwide, with the populist party opening up an advantage ranging from one to 13 per cent.
