Labour tipped to 'be walloped in Wales and thumped in Scotland' as Nigel Farage's party eyes up 'turquoise tsunami'

WATCH NOW: James Heale says the term 'fascist' is overused after Lisa Nandy implied Nigel Farage would lead a fascist Government

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GB NEWS

Susanna Siddell

By Susanna Siddell


Published: 18/01/2026

- 16:07

Updated: 18/01/2026

- 16:09

The Spectator's Deputy Political Editor James Heale painted a grim picture of Labour's future local success on GB News

Labour is gearing up to be "walloped in Wales and thumped in Scotland" at the upcoming local elections in May, James Heale told the People's Channel.

May 7 is set to be a transformative moment in politics when the likes of Reform UK and the Greens are expected to reap the benefits of a disillusioned electorate.


Mr Heale argued the infighting seemingly present within Sir Keir Starmer's party could feed this disgruntlement amongst voters, as campaigns commence across the nation.

The Spectator Deputy Editor told presenter Dawn Neesom: "I think back to the dying days of Theresa May, and there's a bit of a stench of death about all this, isn't there?

"I think we are seeing is the pre-jockeying that's going on because everyone can see what's going to happen in May.

"Labour is going to get absolutely walloped in Wales. They're going to get thumped in Scotland, potentially coming third.

"They're in a historic heartland. The rest of the country is not looking good either in the UK and England."

Last year, Nigel Farage's party stormed to victory across swathes of former Tory and Labour heartlands in England - but now the Reform chief has set his sights on the decimation of the mainstream parties across Wales and Scotland too.

He has even declared the next round at the ballot box will lead to a "turquoise tsunami" across the UK.

Sir Keir Starmer; James Heale

James Heale painted a grim picture for Sir Keir in May

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GETTY/GB NEWS

In Wales, Plaid Cymru has taken the lead in the upcoming Senedd election, with an YouGov poll for ITV placing the nationalist party first with 37 per cent of the votes.

Meanwhile, Reform UK is set to take home 23 per cent of the vote, which remains greater than the sum of support for both Labour and the Conservatives who are expected to take home 10 per cent each.

The Green Party is also set to beat the mainstream groups, sitting on 13 per cent.

In the same poll, it was found more voters who backed Labour in 2024 now support Plaid Cymru over Sir Keir's party.

Malcolm Offord and Nigel FarageMr Farage lauded the peer's extensive political experience | PA

Meanwhile in Scotland, Reform UK is once again facing off against the nationalist party as Mr Farage attempts to break above the border.

Last week, the Reform chief unveiled his party's Scottish leader as newly defected Lord Malcolm Offord, who has vowed to give up his peerage to stand as a candidate in May.

Announcing he would run, Mr Offord said: "I think we can surprise ourselves with just how many votes we manage to garner in these elections."

He added: "A huge chunk of the Scottish electorate are looking for something different. And they're tired of the decline this country has seen under the SNP Government.

"I shall be campaigning hard between now and May 7, to communicate a positive vision of how we can all work together to make Scotland the most successful part of the UK in the next 10 years."

Mr Offord defected from the Conservatives after having been made a life peer by Boris Johnson in 2021

He brings extensive political experience to Reform, having served as Minister of State for Scotland between 2021 and 2024.

Lord Offord was also Minister of State for Exports between 2023 and 2024 and was Treasurer of the Scottish Conservatives.

Welcoming the former Tory peer, Mr Farage said: "I am delighted to welcome Malcolm to Reform. This is a brave and historic act. He will take Reform UK Scotland to a new level," he declared amid a round of raucous applause.

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