Keir Starmer faces Red Wall revolt to Reform if anti-Brexit rebels defy PM, warns veteran Labour MP

Labour’s lone Brexit-backing MP Graham Stringer claimed the Liberal Democrats' push to rejoin the customs union would likely succeed but suggested reopening Brexit wounds could boost Reform UK across the Leave-supporting Red Wall.

He told GB News: “We certainly risk losing seats [to Reform UK] if it passes, and I suspect it might.

“What I see in my mailbox, from people who voted to leave the EU in 2016, is that this is about trust.”

Thirteen Labour MPs backed Liberal Democrat MP Dr Al Pinkerton’s plan last month to force the UK to negotiate a customs union with the EU last month, including three who represent Brexit-voting constituencies.

Only three Labour MPs voted against the customs union, with the Ten Minute Rule Bill passing by the narrowest of margins after Deputy Speaker Caroline Nokes was called to make the casting vote.

While the legislation is only advisory, the Liberal Democrats now plan to table an amendment to upcoming legislation that would place a legal duty on Sir Keir to begin negotiations on a customs union with the EU.

The amendment will be tabled to the Prime Minister's EU reset bill, which is expected to be brought forward in the coming weeks.

GB News understands the bill would create a mechanism for selective regulatory alignment with the EU, allowing the UK to influence, agree to and implement future EU rules rather than having them apply automatically, as they did when Britain was a member of the Brussels bloc.

However, Sir Keir had come under fire from Eurosceptics over his reset plans, with the proposed legislation being dubbed the "Brexit Betrayal Bill".

Labour hopes to secure a closer relationship with the EU's single market, with critics now warning the legislation could remove the right for MPs to vote on regulations and directives from Brussels.

The bill is expected to be brought to the Commons as negotiations with the EU on food, drink and energy continue.

However, Mr Stringer has already cautioned No10 against backtracking on Brexit, warning: “If we are to stand any chance of winning the next election, we mustn’t betray them."

Dr Pinkerton's customs union second reading was expected to take place on January 16.

After it was revealed that the Commons is no longer expected to sit, the Liberal Democrats confirmed they would table an amendment to Labour's own legislation.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey, who accused Sir Keir of "tinkering around the edges" with his EU reset, said: “Liberal Democrats stand ready to work with Labour MPs and others across Parliament to force the Government to change course.”

However, Labour MPs who back the amendment risk undermining Sir Keir’s 2024 General Election manifesto pledge not to rejoin the single market or customs union.

Sir Keir, who campaigned for a second EU referendum while serving as Jeremy Corbyn’s Shadow Brexit Secretary, reiterated that commitment earlier this month, while arguing that dynamic alignment was in the “national interest”.

But Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy have both suggested the UK could rejoin the customs union.

Former Labour leader Lord Kinnock and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham have gone further by voicing support for rejoining the EU altogether.

GB News understands Labour MPs have not yet been spoken to about the Liberal Democrats' push to rejoin the customs union.

A Labour MP also told The People’s Channel: “There’s been no chatter from the whips.”

However, Sir Keir will likely want to protect his premiership by taking a tough stance if the Liberal Democrats succeed in tabling an amendment.

A Labour source told GB News: "The Government has been clear that we want to build a better relationship with the EU, as a sovereign nation outside of the EU.

"We have a mandate to do so, based on our manifesto, which outlined specific red lines."

Since entering No10 in July 2024, the Prime Minister has instructed the whips to take a firm line against internal rebellions.

Following an SNP amendment calling for the abolition of the two-child benefit cap, Sir Keir suspended seven Labour MPs, with left-wing MP Zarah Sultana later leaving the party to co-found Your Party alongside Jeremy Corbyn.

A welfare reform revolt last summer also resulted in four MPs losing the whip, with a further three being dismissed as trade envoys.

Despite Labour’s stonking majority in the Commons, deep divisions over Brexit risk triggering yet another major row over Europe.

The Labour Movement for Europe, which claims support from around 120 MPs, is leading calls for the Prime Minister to pursue a customs arrangement with Brussels.

However, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has hinted at taking the fight to Sir Keir over Brexit.

He warned that the Prime Minister’s pursuit of dynamic alignment risked “breaking faith with his manifesto pledges on the EU”.

Mr Farage doubled down after reports emerged that the EU was seeking to include a so-called “Farage clause” in negotiations, which would impose financial penalties if a future Reform-led Government unravelled elements of the Prime Minister’s reset.

Labour is also cautious of the perception of Brexit backsliding, with support in the Red Wall remaining fragile.

Despite Labour flipping large swathes of seats in the Red Wall, Sir Keir’s vote share in 31 Brexit-backing northern and Midlands constituencies was lower than Jeremy Corbyn’s in 2019.

Meanwhile, Reform UK has surged by appealing to voters who previously backed Boris Johnson.

Labour lost much of its Red Wall support in 2019, when the Conservatives averaged 22,450 votes across 31 former Labour heartlands, compared with Labour’s 17,750.

Despite Labour's figure falling to 16,986 in 2024, Sir Keir ultimately regained seats due to a collapse in Conservative support, with Tory votes falling to just 10,018 on average.

Reform UK now appears well placed to capitalise on voter disaffection, with More in Common’s MRP polling suggesting the Red Wall has been painted turquoise.

GB News analysis suggests Labour would now lose 237 of the 252 Brexit-backing seats it won in 2024, with 232 projected to fall to Reform UK.

Reform UK MP Lee Anderson, who retained his seat of Ashfield following his defection from the Tories in 2024, told GB News: “Seventy per cent voted to leave the EU in Ashfield.

“Backing a customs union and a backdoor return to the EU would ensure Ashfield and the Red Wall are lost by Labour forever. It’s the ultimate betrayal.”

Julian Gallie, head of research at Merlin Strategy, also said Europe could become a major dividing line within Labour following the 2026 Local Elections.

He said: “Polling suggests there is a growing appetite for rejoining the EU, particularly in Scotland, Wales and London, all of which have elections coming up in May.

“If Labour struggles, we can expect increased pressure from MPs in urban, Remain-supporting seats."

GB News’s number-crunchers have also revealed Labour would currently lose 38 of its 157 pro-EU seats to Reform UK, with the SNP poised to snatch 32, the Conservatives set to gain 11 and the Green Party expected to gain five seats.

However, Mr Gallie warned Sir Keir against pursuing “2019-style Brexit wars” to consolidate his position.

“Reopening the Brexit debate risks backfiring," the polling guru told GB News. "The public’s priorities are the cost of living and immigration, and there is little appetite for a return to Brexit culture wars."