Speculation has swirled around Sir Keir Starmer's future as Prime Minister after more than 100 MPs mounted a rebellion against his proposed cuts to the benefits bill.
The Prime Minister in the early hours of this morning confirmed the Government would water down the bill, which was pushing for a £5billion cut to welfare spending.
Plans to slash Pip and Universal Credit payments to thousands of Britons sparked a major Labour rebellion in excess of 130 MPs.
Starmer has consistently denied that the vote on Tuesday would be one of confidence in his premiership, but ahead of the Commons clash, backbench MPs warned the PM that his days could be numbered.
One senior backbench MP warned “the sharks are circling”.
However, the rebels have now been appeased with Downing Street admitting three major concessions would be made in the bill.
A No10 spokesman said: "We have listened to MPs who support the principle of reform but are worried about the pace of change for those already supported by the system.
"The package will preserve the social security system for those who need it by putting it on a sustainable footing, provide dignity for those unable to work, supports those who can and reduce anxiety for those currently in the system.
Starmer was warned 'the sharks are circling'
PA
"Our reforms are underpinned by Labour values and our determination to deliver the change the country voted for last year."
In a letter setting out the Prime Minister's concessions, Work & Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall explained Pip would remain unchanged for all current claimants.
Instead, only new claims made after November 2026 will face the eligibility requirements.
Starmer looks set to survive the first real test to his premiership, but if his hand were to be forced, what processes would have to be initiated? Here's a look at the five steps that could ultimately end Starmer's leadership.
Sir Keir Starmer has confirmed his Government will water down its proposed cuts to Britain's ballooning benefits bill
GETTY
Internal party pressure
With dozens of Labour MPs openly showing dissatisfaction with Starmer’s handling of the welfare bill, members of his own party and affiliated unions could put enough pressure on to push him out.
Although no Labour MPs openly called for the PM to resign, there were murmurs ahead of the U-turn that jittery members of the frontbench could resign.
Should enough Cabinet ministers resign, his position could become untenable.
Only one frontbench MP, Vicky Foxcroft, who served as Lord Commissioner of the Treasury, resigned over the welfare bill.
Personal commitment to resign
Back in 2022, during the Beergate investigation in which he was later cleared of wrongdoing, Starmer pledged to resign if he was fined for breaking Covid rules.
Should the PM ever be found to have committed wrongdoing on another scandal, he would face political pressure to uphold his vow and come to the decision to resign on his own.
If Starmer followed through on his promise, he would voluntarily resign as Labour leader and trigger a leadership contest.
Parliamentary pressure
Should the PM face sufficient pressure but refuse to resign, his leadership could be challenged by the Opposition.
Kemi Badenoch or another opposition party could table a motion of no confidence in Starmer’s leadership.
Even if it were to succeed, it would not necessarily remove him from office unless it was binding; however, it would significantly damage his position.
Punished at the ballot box
Although the expected 2029 General Election seems distant, Starmer could be forced out by none other than the British public should he still be in power.
Currently, Nigel Farage’s Reform Party has a significant lead over Starmer.
According to the latest MRP poll by YouGov, Reform would be the largest party if a General Election were held today.
The poll revealed a turquoise tsunami would sweep large swathes of England and Wales, returning 271 Reform MPs to the House of Commons.
Starmer’s Labour would suffer its worst result since 1935, with just 178 seats.
YouGov's MPR pollYOUGOVFormal leadership challenge
Lastly, a formal challenge for leadership could oust him from office.
According to the Labour rulebook, there are two ways he could be removed.
The first would require Labour MPs to trigger a leadership challenge whereby twenty per cent of MPs (about 40) must nominate an alternative candidate.
If successful, a leadership election would be held among Labour members and affiliated unions.
The other way is if Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) forces a contest
Labour’s NEC could declare a leadership vacancy, forcing Starmer to recontest his position.
If Starmer loses, he would be replaced.
Most Read
