EXPOSED: Graphs reveal reason illegal migration to the UK is unlikely to fall any time soon

There are two major ways of assessing the numbers of migrants who form the pool from which many tens of thousands cross to the UK illegally, by setting off across the English Channel in small (but ever-larger) boats.

The traditional method has always been to look at the number of asylum-seekers who have managed to cross into the EU, and this is where we start.

In the five years from August 2020 to July 2025, a total of nearly four million (3,949,630) asylum applications have been received by EU27 countries from non-EU migrants.

Last year the number fell, but it remains at levels which suggest that the problem of the EU’s porous borders has still not been resolved.

The problem of vast numbers of migrants entering the EU, mostly from African and Arab countries, really started taking off after German Chancellor Angela Merkel took office in 2005.

This became a problem of almost insurmountable proportions in 2015 when she unilaterally declared the equivalent of "All Welcome Here". She did this without any prior notice to, or approval from, the other member countries, including the United Kingdom.

The numbers that poured into the EU and on to Germany following her rash proclamation had taken the German Chancellor by surprise.

The Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) was one response, and as usual other countries, particularly the UK, ended up picking up a significant part of the cost.

The EUTF fund was discretionary and the UK paid into it.

It did so via various mechanisms and using the funding of different Departments.

Traditionally the migrant problem has been measured by the number of asylum applications received, but this only tells part of the story. For the first time we can now show the number of illegal migrants detected within the EU’s borders.

We have been able to qualify this data in order to exclude those who are found at borders or in their immediate proximity.

Our chart below, published for the first time, shows the number of illegal migrants who have been detected by the authorities within each country’s borders. This shows the numbers who have successfully evaded any border controls and visa regulations and who were found to be illegally present "in-country".

Clearly this is of particular interest to British readers, as it indicates how many more may be seeking eventually to make their way to the UK.

In the four years from 2021 to 2024, the authorities in EU countries made more than 2.3 million (2,333,495) detections of illegal migrants found to be present in their countries, excluding those apprehended at borders.

Prior to 2021 this information was not collected and it has only been collected annually since then.

This second set of data is significant as it gives some idea of the extent of the illegal migrant problem in the EU which does not ‘appear on the radar’.

These are migrants who have chosen to avoid contact with the authorities.

It is also self-evident that 2.3 million is only the number for those illegal migrants who have been caught.

It must be presumed that, just as in the UK, the ability of the authorities to locate these individuals is woefully inadequate.