Millions of expats given vote by Conservative Party will 'punish Tories for Brexit'
WATCH: Michael Portillo discusses the Tories' chances at the next general election
Millions of ex-pats that have been handed the vote by the Conservative Party are likely to give the Labour Party a boost at the next election.
Changes introduced by eh Conservative Party, which came into effect on January 16, give all British citizens living abroad the right to vote.
Previously, people who left the UK more than 15 years ago lose the right to vote.
The changes will add up to 2.3 million extra voters at the next election, according to Government esimtates.
Millions of ex-pats that have been handed the vote by the Conservative Party are likely to give the Labour Party a boost at the next election
PA
New research shows that Labour, who opposed the rule change, will gain voters from the policy.
Dr Susan Collard, an academic at the University of Sussex, said there is no evidence to suggest that voting intention among the expat community will have changed since her last study, conducted in 2020.
The study surveyed more than 3,200 British expats living in Europe - where the main bulk of expats who participate in UK elections live.
It showed that the Conservative Party's vote share fell by two-thirds between the 2015 and 2019 general elections.
She said the main driver of the drop in support had been Brexit, saying: "They’re not forgetting. Many are still living in the consequences of Brexit so all I could say is there isn’t any evidence that the mood has changed among those voters.”
She added: "Given the unpopularity of the Conservative Party in this country, I can’t see anything that they’ve done that would change the negative outlook for them based on the results of the data that we had."
Pollster Sir John Curtice echoed this, telling the Times: "Whatever benefit the Conservatives might have gained in the past from enfranchisement of overseas British citizens — and, in truth, no one can be sure how far that has been the case — there must be question marks about how much support the party can now hope to garner from expatriates living in the European Union, many of whom could well feel that their lives have been made more difficult by Brexit.”
She also dismissed the perception that British expats are more likely to vote Conservative, saying: "That is a stereotype that belongs to the 1980s, and the whole question of mobility in the EU has meant that going to live abroad is no longer posh people going to live in villas on the Mediterranean — it’s a hugely diverse population, they have hugely diverse views.”
The Conservative party is trailing more than 20 points behind Labour in the polls.
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In a fresh blow to Rishi Sunak, People Polling for GB News put Labour at 45 per cent, the Conservatives at 20 per cent and Reform at 12 per cent.
The GB News People Polling saw 16 per cent of 2019 Conservatives back Nigel Farage as the most popular choice to replace Sunak as the leader of the party.
The next most popular choice was Boris Johnson on 15 per cent support to replace Sunak, ahead of Penny Mordaunt on 12 per cent.