Rwanda flights may soon be up and running. Let's assess what they will achieve - Nigel Nelson

“The boats have kept coming, the backlog has kept growing, and the people smugglers are still laughing all the way to the bank. We’ve had two years of flogging this dead horse.”

So let’s take a cool, hard look at what this horse might achieve assuming it has not yet expired.

Those of us who oppose this policy cannot say with certainty that it will not work. What we can say is that there is no evidence that it will, the usual criteria used to justify blowing half-a-billion smackers of taxpayer cash.

Which is why the Home Office’s most senior official, Sir Matthew Rycroft, would not sign it off as value for money.

While we don't know it won’t act as a deterrent until it is tried, that is a bit like me saying I’d like to cross the Atlantic in a pedalo. I won’t know I can’t do it unless I have a go, but the odds of me sinking before losing sight of Land’s End must be pretty high.

The Lords will soon capitulate, perhaps as soon as today, not because their amendments were wrong, but because the will of the Commons should always prevail.

But it would be a pity if MPs did not consider protecting Afghan interpreters or ensuring compliance with international law as important enough to include in the legislation.

Will the planes stop the boats? Judge for yourself given that only 1 in 100 migrants who cross the Channel will end up flying in one. And that will depend on finding a carrier to take them anyway.

Rwanda’s national airline RwandAir won’t because it fears reputational damage and British airlines are refusing for a similar reason. That may leave the RAF as the only option and the MoD is not keen on getting sucked in either.

It’s not a great look for Britain if the only way of getting vulnerable refugees to the central African country is by bundling them onto a military Hercules. I’ve flown in those things over Iraq and Afghanistan and it’s like being inside an airborne pneumatic drill.

The cost is enormous, around £1.6million for each of the 300 migrants earmarked for transportation - enough to keep them in a hotel for 30 years.

That’s the eye-watering figure worked out by the National Audit Office. It breaks down as £370million to the Rwandan government, along with £20,000 for each asylum seeker it accommodates plus £151,000 per person for processing and resettlement.

Should a refugee not settle and wish to leave Rwanda for more congenial climes, the UK will stump up another £10,000 to the Rwandans in compensation. And the Kigali government will get a bonus of £120million once the first 300 refugees are dispatched there.

Add in a load of costs this end such as £11,000 for each air fare, legal fees, and the training and provision of escorts, and the price tag takes us well north of £500million.

Which leaves Rwandan President Paul Kagame skipping happily all the way to his country’s central bank. That’s more than five times the value of his coffee exports worldwide.

But if you are languishing on a hospital waiting list with a knackered hip you may feel this is money which could be better spent. Not only could you get your hip done but 46,000 others could, too.

Or if you want your knee repaired this is enough dosh to replace 85,000 of them. And if you need some physiotherapy afterwards then the cash would pay for 19,000 more NHS bone crunchers to get you on your feet again.

Mr Kagame is up there with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un when it comes to hoovering up support at election time winning with more than 90 per cent of the vote in 2003, 2010 and 2017.

Though not all voters decided to stay put. According to Rwanda’s opposition more than 6,300 have fled since 2022 to claim asylum elsewhere, with some coming to Britain.

You might conclude from these figures that democracy in Rwanda is somewhat symbolic. You may also think that getting a plane off the ground to fly a few migrants there is largely symbolic as well.