The Rwanda bill, which looks to require the UK courts to consider Rwanda a safe country, will be debated in the House of Commons next week.
But as it stands, it looks as if the draft of the bill will not stop the boats.
Passing the bill is of huge importance, but only if it's an effective bill.
Passing an ineffective bill would make the government look hopeless. In many ways, it would be better to do nothing than to fail again, because this is actually the third go at trying to get people deported to Rwanda.
Jacob Rees-Mogg says the Rwanda Bill's passing 'will not stop the boats'
GB News
And there are many MPs, including me, who believe the bill lacks clarity and is in some sense a bit moth eaten.
At any rate, the moths seem to have eaten a few holes in the bill which could prevent or slow down the process of moving asylum seekers to Rwanda if it's passed.
Rishi Sunak's Bill seeks to ensure that there will be no further lawsuits, such as the ones that have scuppered the Rwanda plan so far.
But one of the failings of the bill currently drafted, is it would allow migrants to make individual appeals, which would then make no difference to the attractiveness of Britain as a destination, and would undermine the deterrence effect.
If you can come here and make an appeal, another appeal, another appeal, until eventually you've got established rights, you'll still think it's worth taking that dangerous crossing, being involved with the people smugglers, all the disadvantages of taking the small boats and coming over in small boats.
The numbers won't change if the appeals aren't circumscribed.
And the ways in which appeals by asylum seekers will have to be circumscribed is to narrow them to specific things that will affect them and relate to Rwanda.
We also need to remember that the first flight was grounded in 2022 because of an Article 39 injunction from the European Court of Human Rights. Now, don't let your eyes glaze over when I say Article 39 injunction. What this means is the court using a power that gave to itself.
We never gave to it, it's not in the treaty, has stopped people being deported and the bill drafted doesn't make it clear that the government will definitely refuse to accept these claims by the court, which it essentially had no authority to give to itself.
So if these two things are not done, then either the appeal cases will block the system or grounded flights will block the runway. And there's another amendment that's proposed which would block asylum seekers trying to prevent their removal under the European Convention on Human Rights or other international treaties. They can only do it under domestic UK law.
In order to make sure this bill works properly and quickly, the government must adopt these amendments. Otherwise it will be parliamentary wallpaper. It will serve the will of the British people to do it properly.
But the government needs to make good on its policy to stop the boats once and for all. It is, after all, what the Prime Minister promised.
