The elections earlier this week proved that the political map of the UK remains in flux. Labour suffered major losses after barely a year in government.
The Liberal Democrats made significant gains in the South, whilst Reform UK surged in the North and the South, including in many coastal communities, capitalising on local discontent and anti-Tory, anti-Labour sentiment. In fifteen years, the British electorate has changed from left to right-leaning.
In 2010, David Cameron was forced into a centrist coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but by 2015, he secured an unexpected outright majority, albeit with a relatively ‘soft’ Conservative agenda. However, by 2019, the public voted overwhelmingly for Boris Johnson’s unapologetically Conservative agenda and clear, decisive action on Brexit: ‘take back control’ on borders, laws, money, trade.
Since then, the waters have muddied. The Conservatives failed to consolidate that support, and Labour offers no compelling polices on the issues that voters care most about: immigration, public services, housing, the economy, and the soul of our country.
Across vast swathes of former Conservative territory, voters no longer see themselves represented by either of the two main parties. They see themselves in Reform UK — its language, its tone, and the way it makes them feel understood.
Reform’s rise is not simply about spin or slogans. Its voters are driven by deep-seated concerns that neither of the big parties has addressed. Over 70 per cent of 2024 Reform UK supporters believe “non-white people have more advantages in society than white people”, and nearly 87 per cent back repealing human-rights legislation if it helps curb immigration.
They reject what they perceive as an overly “woke” establishment in both Westminster parties, and they have been galvanised, many having sat out elections for years until Reform came along.
Reform is not the core problem for Tories - there's an 800-pound gorilla gnawing away at us - Sally-Ann Hart
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The recent locals were not about potholes or planning permissions. They were a referendum on national failure, and a warning shot.
In the recent Sussex by-elections, Conservatives were not battling Labour - they were trying to fend off the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform, who swept in where we left a vacuum.
In Kent, where Labour took nine seats from the Conservatives in the general election last year, Reform took control of the County Council, wiping out 30 years of Conservative rule. Labour won a mere two seats.
And therein lies the challenge. Reform may have split the vote in many seats, but their success is not the core problem. Reform UK exists because Conservatives have failed to show conviction and courage. It is our people who have been disenfranchised, and until we show we truly understand what is at stake, the drift will continue.
Talk of a possible meeting of minds or an electoral pact between the Conservatives and Reform to keep Labour at bay is growing louder. As any collaboration must rest on shared principles and genuine trust, we must first ask - what do we stand for?
The answer must not be a technocratic list of policies. It must be a vision rooted in core Conservative values and a commitment to practical solutions.
We must speak not only to traditional Tory voters but also to those who have been mobilised by Reform - people who want firm action on borders, local services that work, and a politics that feels relevant to their lives.
Kemi Badenoch must embody that clarity and conviction and front our message across the media and on the doorsteps, and remind voters why low-tax, homeowner-first policies serve their interests, while simultaneously presenting a tough, detailed plan on immigration and public services, and delivering tangible levelling-up in the North and our coastal towns through dedicated ministers, long-term investment, and clear local wins. People need a reason to believe in us, and they need it today.
