Prospect of Nigel Farage MP will shake Westminster to the core, Michael Heaver argues

A new poll shows Nigel Farage leading in a Westminster constituency election.

A new poll shows Nigel Farage leading in a Westminster constituency election.

Michael  Heaver

By Michael Heaver

Published: 15/01/2024

- 10:14

A new constituency poll points to a huge potential breakthrough at the next General Election

The rise in support for Richard Tice's Reform UK is already rattling quite a few in Westminster and it isn't hard to see why.

A party without any representation in Parliament now polling third, ahead of the likes of the Liberal Democrats, is a big deal.

The 10 per cent and 11 per cent poll showings for Reform could potentially have a massive impact on the General Election.

Especially when you consider Tice's vow that every Conservative MP and candidate will have a Reform challenger to contend with.

On top of that has been the surge in speculation surrounding a potential Nigel Farage return to the fray.

Research conducted demonstrates that were that to happen, Reform would receive another poll boost and be backed by around a third of Leave voters - and of those who voted Tory in 2019.

Of course one of the big arguments that the Conservatives will deploy will centre around 'vote Reform, get Labour'.

The First Past The Post electoral system does undoubtedly pose a unique challenge to newer parties who face the prospect of securing millions of votes without a single MP to show for it.

Indeed UKIP secured nearly 4 million votes at the 2015 General Election and were left pretty much without any representation in Westminster.

I say pretty much, because the party did hold on to one seat - in Clacton, Essex.

This is a seat that voted around 70 per cent in favour of leaving the European Union in 2016 and then re-elected Douglas Carswell after he left the Conservatives, called a by-election and stood for UKIP.

It is also a seat that in 2024 could destroy the 'vote Reform, get Labour' argument - with Nigel Farage breaking through in Westminster at the same time.

A new poll commissioned by businessman Arron Banks, conducted by Survation, shows that this time Farage would have a very good chance of winning and becoming an MP.

Of course he has already led two different political parties to winning national elections - but those were European Elections with proportional representation.

When it comes to the next General Election, Farage currently has a 10-point lead in Clacton over the Conservative MP Giles Watling, with Labour in third.

As Survation's Damian Lyons Lowe has explained: "If, however, Nigel Farage were to stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton at the present time, the party would look set to win the seat from the Conservatives with a 10 point lead.

"Half of all Conservative voters and 51 per cent of Leave voters would vote for Farage were he to stand.

"Farage’s support is strong among older, Conservative, and leave voters.

"In terms of net favourability, Farage is at a rating of +4 per cent while Keir Starmer's is -33 per cent and Rishi Sunak on -20 per cent.

"The Prime Minister’s net approval is -6 per cent among even those who voted for his party in 2019. Among the same group of 2019 Tory voters, Farage is at +24 per cent."

Farage's breakthrough into the EU Parliament ended up with him leading the Brexit charge and the UK's exit from the EU.

His political opponents, Labour and Conservative alike, will be hoping to stop him making a similar impact from inside the House of Commons.

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