The good folk of Gorton and Denton are in for a torrid time. Parliamentary candidates, campaigners, pollsters and a media circus are about to descend and disrupt their lives as they become the centre of the political firmament until Friday, 27th February.
That’s when we will know the result of one of the most eagerly anticipated by-elections in recent history. And until then, this chunk of the north-west will be in the spotlight.
First off the starting blocks, Matt Goodwin as the MP offering from Reform. We must wait a little longer before we find out who the Labour, Tory, Green, Lib Dem and Monster Raving Loony candidates are.
Mr Goodwin has already bigged up his local connections. As a student, he used to deliver pizzas there.
Since then, he has been an academic and expert on Britain’s political right with books on populism, Brexit and UKIP. He promises to give voters a voice in Westminster. And he has a good chance of doing so if the latest opinion poll out this afternoon from YouGov is anything to go by.
It puts Reform on 25 per cent, with Labour four points behind on 21 and the Tories on 17. This should have been a rock-solid Labour seat.
The previous MP, Andrew Gwynne, who quit on health grounds after being suspended for some nasty WhatsApp messages, enjoyed a 13,400 majority against Reform’s second place 5,000 votes at last year’s election.
Gorton and Denton would have had more chance of staying Labour had the popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham not been blocked by the party's ruling national executive from standing.
George Galloway's Gaza ticket blows this race wide open as Matt Goodwin bats for Reform - Nigel Nelson | Getty Images
Around 50 Labour MPs have signed a petition trying to get that decision overturned. They shouldn’t hold their breath. And times have changed since Mr Gwynne romped home to victory, which means Labour is no longer a shoo-in for the seat.
The promises Keir Starmer made in his 2024 election manifesto might yet be fulfilled, but voters are impatient. And the PM did not do himself any favours in the popularity stakes with missteps such as trying to rip away pensioners’ winter fuel allowance, dressing up a £5billion hit on the disabled as welfare reform and dithering over the last Budget.
He may be more sure-footed on the world stage, but international politics tend not to win by-elections, though the war in Gaza may have an effect.
Nearly one in three of the area’s population is Muslim, which means George Galloway is already eyeing it up on a Gaza ticket, which could take votes from Labour.
The Greens also fancy their chances and have a following among the left-leaning young professionals who moved into Levenshulme, to the west of the constituency, in search of more affordable housing. They, too, will take votes away from Labour, which Andy Burnham might have won had Labour Party’s bigwigs let him.
Which would give Mr Goodwin a chance to slip through the middle.