Mark Dolan: Economy up, Covid down - Britain's bounceback is truly underway

We know about the extraordinary damage to the economy and peoples’ lives and livelihoods of lockdowns, and it’s clear to me that the long-term impact will be a damaged, diminished and divided country and a likely far higher death toll from non-Covid related illnesses and the shorter, damaged lives, that come from creating the biggest recession in 300 years.

And create a recession we did, with the closure of once viable businesses, as part of a wider lockdown strategy of stopping people from going out to work and living their lives. With one of the highest Covid death tolls in the world, did those measures work? And were they worth it? You tell me. But something important happened on the 19th of July.

For the first time in this pandemic, the prime minister and his government saw down the doomsday scientists, the lockdown loving leader of the opposition and most of the media, by lifting all Covid restrictions. It was a belated but much needed act of political courage from the PM, and we are now seeing the benefit. Some called freedom day reckless, and predicted 100 or even 200,000 daily cases. They're currently a fraction of that.

Meanwhile England's Covid R rate has fallen to below one, for the first time in three months, according to No10's top scientific advisers. SAGE now estimate the reproduction rate - which reflects how quickly the virus is spreading - is between 0.8 and 1.

Last week's figure was thought to be as high as 1.1. There is now a welcome correlation, between the lifting of Covid restrictions and falling cases, low hospitalisations and low tragic deaths from the virus. So that must be the perennial theme going into winter. The siren calls for mask mandates and local or even national lockdowns must be resisted.

And that NHS waiting list of millions must not get longer. And that nation debt of two trillion must now be contained. Whilst there is no overwhelming data to prove that any of these lockdown measures have definitively helped, their damage is clear. Freedom day was a test case for trusting the British people and we passed it with flying colours.

It turns out we were able to judge the risks of Covid for ourselves. Some people went back to the office, some didn't. Some went out and partied, some didn't. And yes, some wore masks and some didn't. I've been particularly struck by how many people in the so-called vulnerable groups ,are going about life unmasked. Which suggests to me, that reason is beginning to prevail.

Now the Guardian ran a story this week about an explosion of child abuse and neglect as a result of lockdowns. Well I've been pushing back on the idea lockdowns since about three weeks into the pandemic. So if you were a cheerleader for these unproven, experimental measures, this is your legacy. All of the damage from lockdowns – economic, societal and health – is on you.

Top scientists are also beginning to see reason. Government adviser Professor Andrew Hayward has said future control measures should only apply to the most vulnerable. The case for those unprecedented Covid measures is tumbling like a House of Cards. How was creating the biggest recession in 300 years not going to claim more lives?

But we are where we are, and we are in a good place. I've got that Friday feeling. Economy up, business confidence up, employment up, Sage doom mongers down, Covid cases down, professor Neil Ferguson and his junk modelling down down down. And with this good news, it's time to celebrate the tail end of the great British summer.

Millions have decided to spend their holidays in the UK this year and they can celebrate with a few pints in a great british beer garden, because the narrative has now changed from fear and control, to freedom, self-confidence, optimism recovery and growth. With the vaccine clearly effective against hospitalisations and deaths, but not against transmission, it's also clear that those Covid passports are not just unacceptable, but wholly unjustified.

Just be glad we are not in New Zealand, where a woman more holy than the Pope, Saint Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand, pursues a ruinous zero Covid policy. And Australia are doing the same thing, with the capital Canberra in lockdown after, wait for it, one case. Take my word for it, if you went for zero Covid here, you would be left with zero Britain at the end of it. Covid will sadly always be with us, and the country will never be quite the same. But the war on this virus is now over. It’s time to move on, take a path to recovery and to once again begin living our lives. Welcome, to Bounceback Britain.