There is no way of denying that the local election results were very disappointing for Labour. For the Tories, they were existentially bad.
It is no longer clear what the Conservatives are for and whether they will be the main challenger to Labour at the next election. And I cannot deny that Reform had a very good night.
However, the evidence does not show that these results presage that Reform will win the next General Election and that Nigel Farage will become Prime Minister.
For every one voter Farage attracts, he repels two or three more, and that is an insurmountable challenge for him to overcome.
Rather, these election results show a fractured political landscape, with a hung parliament likely unless Labour delivers and persuades people it has delivered.
Polling following the election by “More in Common” showed that the main motivator for Labour defectors to Reform was “to send a message to the Government”. A message that these voters were not happy. In other words, a protest vote.
Labour cannot tear Reform apart limb from limb unless it reverses its most suicidal decision - Bill RammellGetty Images
And we have been here before with midterm protest votes. Lib Dem surges which expired by the time of the General Election.
And in 1981, the newly created SDP was polling at 50 per cent (not the 30 per cent Reform got this time), yet by the General Election, the then Tory Government was re-elected by a landslide. So, history tells us Labour can win back those protest votes.
But it is not guaranteed, and we could be heading for a hung parliament unless Labour makes changes to address the concerns of protest voters.
And Labour probably needs a symbolic change to demonstrate it has got the message and listened. I have argued until I’m blue in the face that you can make a case for means-testing the Winter Fuel Allowance. But the decision has badly sapped trust in Labour. It's time to find the money to reverse the cut and restore the fuel allowance in full. Showing Labour has listened.
And the Government needs its good policies on cutting immigration to bear fruit. Further progress on deportations, reframing article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights to stop the ridiculous “chicken nugget” rulings, cracking down on dodgy immigration lawyers, offshore processing in the Balkans and a mandatory 24-week limit on appeals.
All current Labour Government policies, but they need to demonstrate they are cutting numbers urgently. And Labour needs to find a language to demonstrate that it gets voters' concerns about immigration. And Labour needs to move further and faster with the delivery of change.
There is a good story to be told. Wages outstripping prices for the first time in 10 years. NHS waiting lists have fallen for seven months in a row. Deportations up 30 per cent. 13,000 new neighbourhood police. A 40 per cent increase in funding to every council to fill potholes. Fast-tracked workers' rights. Increasing the minimum wage by three times the rate of inflation.
Housing and planning reform is bringing homes which are desperately needed and giving the biggest boost to economic growth on record.
There is a good story to be told. Labour, since the election, has been hopeless at telling it. This needs to change and change fast. And Labour needs to tear Reform and Farage politically limb from limb. Showing the populists for the chancers they are bringing simplistic solutions to very complicated problems.
Going after Farage on Putin and Trump, which is not where the British people are. Exposing Farage’s support for private health insurance for the NHS. And showing clearly how Farage would cripple the economy just like Liz Truss. Not for nothing did the Institute for Fiscal Studies say at the General Election that Reform's sums do not add up.
But more than anything, Labour needs to communicate much better. In the Labour Government I served in, we told a story every day, every week, every month of what the Government was doing, how and why. By God, we need that now. With it, Labour can recover the protest votes and win again.
