Whilst the Labour Party continues to show the nation how divided they are at their annual conference in Liverpool, all eyes will be on Tory leader Kemi Badenoch this Sunday when she kicks off the Conservative Party conference in Manchester.
It is well-documented how disastrous the first year of this Labour government has been. They have made economic decisions that have brought stagnation to our economy, happily allowed the police to harass people for their social media posts and have achieved nothing when it comes to stopping migrants illegally entering this country in small boats.
Add to this the recent poll that rated Sir Keir Starmer as the worst Prime Minister of all time, along with a rump of his own Labour MPs who want to see him gone, it should be an open goal for the Conservatives, but public opinion suggests otherwise.
A Find Out Now poll has put the Tories in fourth place on 14 per cent, behind the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent, Labour on 17 per cent and Reform UK on 33 per cent.
The mammoth lead for Reform UK should surprise no one. They have taken the top spot now for over one hundred polls, thanks to a blitz of policy announcements and defections from the Conservative Party over the last couple of months.
But the fact that this poll suggests that the Tories are now languishing on a paltry 14 per cent behind the Liberal Democrats puts even greater pressure on Badenoch this weekend.
Three leaders are fighting for your vote, but only one is days away from an existential event - Duncan Barkes
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The usual caveat applies that this is only one poll, and others may differ, but we can agree that the Conservative Party has struggled to burst through in the last year and make any serious polling gains.
There is no doubt that Badenoch is doing the hard work by trying to pull together a battered political party and rebuild morale.
She should take some comfort that the money is still coming in from donors, with the most recent figures showing the Conservatives raked in £2.9mllion in donations compared to Labour raising £2.6million and Reform UK bringing in £1.35million.
Funding is vital in politics, as without it you cannot afford to field candidates, mount campaigns, or get your message out.
And here lies the biggest challenge facing Badenoch – what is the message?
I was part of a discussion on GB News at the weekend about the speculation that she will make an announcement at the Tory conference about withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
But Reform UK already have this as a policy and have mopped up all the voter support from those who see this as the solution to the small boat crisis.
Unlike Nigel Farage, Badenoch is not a natural-born communicator, which is so vital in today’s political world. It feels like the looming Conservative Party conference matters like no other.
She will not only have to rally her troops to give them hope and to stop additional defections to Reform UK, but she will also need to successfully communicate to the public that the Tories still have a role in our political landscape.
She may feel she has time on her side, but this would be a foolish and false sense of security to rely upon. British politics is changing fast in a way that the old rules no longer apply.
If Badenoch fails to deliver a barnstorming performance at her conference this weekend, then Danny Kruger, the East Wiltshire MP who recently defected from the Tories to Reform UK, will be spot on - the Conservative Party will be over.
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