For the first time, a few Labour MPs openly, and more of them privately, are questioning Keir Starmer’s fitness to govern. The consensus is that he has until the next year’s local elections in May to turn things around.
Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is clearly eyeing up the throne. He now has his own movement (Mainstream, which calls itself the home of “radical realists”) and his own deputy leadership candidate (Lucy Powell).
He has been developing an embryo of a manifesto talking about “unifying the popular left” to counter a “divisive populist right” and complaining that the government is “overtaxing labour and under-taxing wealth”.
For good measure, he came out against cutting winter payments for pensioners and benefits for the disabled, bashing the bruise of the PM’s two biggest mistakes.
And there’s the possibility of a Labour MP surrendering a seat to give the mayor the wherewithal to have a tilt at the premiership.
Add to that the mess over Angela Rayner’s resignation and the messy sacking of Peter Mandelson, and it looks like the PM is on the ropes.
As Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davie told LBC: “I saw him in the tearoom yesterday and in the smoking room in the House of Commons - where you can’t smoke.
Think the PM is in trouble now? Two imminent events make this the honeymoon period - Nigel Nelson | Getty Images
“I’ve never seen him there before last night. That suggests to me that he knows he’s under serious pressure.”Pressure, yes. Terminal pressure, no. At least not yet.
It would need an earthmover to shift Keir Starmer from No 10 given that it would take 80 Labour MPs to support a challenger.
That would require organising a plot bigger than Jeremy Corbyn’s allotment, and with such a huge majority a no-confidence vote is not a goer.
But if there were a report card for prime ministers, it would say there is room for improvement if master Starmer is going to pass his final exams in 2029 when the next election comes around.
That means getting delivery right and better No 10 communications to make more of what Labour is already doing. The bottom line is that, come 2029, most voters have to feel better off than they did in 2024.
Labour has made a start on house building, but unless you have been able to buy a new affordable home, you’re not going to feel the benefit of it.
Progress is being made on cutting NHS waiting lists, but no one still languishing on one is going to feel grateful.GB Energy is an achievement, but it will not be appreciated as such until gas and electric bills start coming down significantly.
Cracking down on the water companies is the right thing to do, but we won’t notice any change in the water coming out of our taps. Only wild swimmers who can dive into rivers without getting a mouthful of muck are likely to notice any difference.
Nationalising the rail companies will be met with a shrug of the shoulders unless there is an improvement in the services they provide.
And it doesn’t matter that the asylum backlog is being cut and more migrants are being removed while record numbers of small boats are seen crossing the Channel.
There are two events coming up which don’t bode well for the PM. His party conference in Liverpool will be dominated by the deputy leadership tussle between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson.
And Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget in November doesn’t look as if it will contain much good news. How she must be regretting ruling out doing something creative with income tax and VAT so she could spread the pain.
No wonder so many voters are turning to new kids on the block, Reform UK. It may not have credible answers to all these problems, but it hasn’t got any baggage either. And Nigel Farage’s promises can seem beguiling while he doesn’t have to carry any of them out.
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