Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued his first public message since taking over from his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the conflict along with many of his immediate political henchmen in an Israeli air strike.
In it, he vowed to "avenge the blood of Iranians" and to continue blocking oil shipping routes, by which he means the Strait of Hormuz. Or did he?
According to other media reports, the younger Khamenei was severely wounded in the same attack and is now in a coma in an Iranian hospital, having had a leg amputated due to his injuries. The suspicion is that his public statement was made on his behalf by others.
Threatening shipping in the Strait is probably the biggest weapon in Tehran’s armoury, as it has a dramatic effect on the global economy.
Approximately 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas passes through this narrow channel. Iran has already started attacking commercial shipping here. Since the war began on 28 February, there have been 16 reported attacks on vessels in the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.
Most recently, three more cargo ships were attacked in the Strait overnight, with at least two of them burning and casualties among their crews. Iranian uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) are likely the culprits.
Iran just deployed its biggest weapon. This is now a completely different war - Lt Col Stuart Crawford
|Getty Images
President Trump has offered that the US Navy could escort commercial traffic through the narrow passage, and hinted that the USA might "take over" the Strait of Hormuz.
If implemented, this would almost certainly require ground troops to be deployed to secure the Iranian shore. This is something Trump will not be keen to do, but with him, you never know. And then the USA is committed long-term. I suspect it'll be another iteration of TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out - and he'll probably baulk at the prospect tbh.
If it does happen, though, the UK will have to decide whether we're in or if we're out. You could argue that occupying and holding the Iranian naval facilities along the shore there could be a prime tasking for our Royal Marine Commandos, but I doubt that Starmer has the cojones for such decisive action.
So we’ll just have to wait and see whether Trump’s patience runs out. Given Iran’s intransigence and continued defiance, it could take some time to resolve this impasse, and in the meantime, the price of oil yo-yos around the $100 per barrel mark and unsettles world markets. Starting a war is the easy bit; ending it is much more difficult.
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