Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary after 16 years in power marks more than a domestic political shift; it's a blow to Putin’s influence in Europe.
It removes one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies inside the European Union and NATO, but it doesn’t necessarily signal a significant turning point in how Hungary responds to the European support of Ukraine.
For years, Orbán was Moscow’s closest ally inside the European Union. It was an open secret that EU officials tried not to discuss anything classified in front of the Hungarian representatives, understanding that all would be quickly transmitted to Moscow.
While other European leaders worked to coordinate sanctions and financial support for Kyiv, Orban repeatedly stood in the way. Most notably, Orbán had critically continued to use his veto to block a €90billon loan package intended to support Ukraine at a critical point in the war.
That obstruction made Hungary one of the Kremlin’s most effective pressure points inside the West. Orbán’s exit changes that dynamic. It does not weaken Russia overnight, but it does remove a key obstacle to European unity.
For Putin, this is a setback. Losing a reliable ally reduces Moscow’s ability to divide, sabotage and subvert.
It is also important not to misread this moment. This is not a simple victory for liberal politics. Hungary’s new leadership is not a radical departure ideologically.
Péter Magyar is a conservative who was part of Orbán’s system for years. Having broken ties approximately two years ago, he is focused on economic performance, tackling corruption, prioritising national interest, and hasn’t publicly expressed support for Ukraine.
However, he does prioritise normalising relations with Brussels and moving towards joining the Eurozone.
Thus, foreign policy direction does matter. A more pragmatic, Brussels-aligned Hungary is likely to stop blocking support for Ukraine and repair relationships within NATO and the EU, not least to unlock frozen EU funding.
That alignment strengthens Europe’s position. European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen, Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron and Donald Tusk, have already welcomed the result, while Washington’s reaction has been more muted.
Hungary will now need to reverse key policies on the rule of law and media freedom to fully restore trust and access funding.
The energy picture is far more complex. While Hungary has benefited from cheaper Russian oil and gas, those savings have not been fully felt by Hungarians, with fuel prices often higher than in neighbouring Poland or Bulgaria. This raises questions about how far energy ties to Moscow have truly served the Hungarian public.
Viktor Orbán’s fall weakens Vladimir Putin - but Russia has Europe's most prized asset - Lubov Chernukhin | Getty Images
Whether the new Hungarian government can take on the entrenched interests to reverse this situation and pass the much-needed savings to the people remains to be seen.
This will determine whether Hungary will truly step away politically from Moscow, given existing economic dynamics. After years of dependency, Hungary still relies heavily on Russian oil, gas and nuclear infrastructure, and Magyar has already signalled that cost will remain the priority, even if that means maintaining Russian ties in the short term.
\This creates a clear tension at the heart of Europe’s position. Political alignment can shift quickly, but energy systems cannot. Russia does not just export energy - it conditions elites to rely on high profits from energy imports and then uses that dependency as leverage.
Hungary may no longer act as a political proxy for Moscow, but if Russian energy continues to flow, the Kremlin retains influence.
Magyar’s government remains one of the few buyers of Russian oil and gas, meaning Russia could still seek to court it while also giving Hungary limited leverage as Moscow’s export options shrink.
For the UK, this matters. Having championed support of Ukraine, the disappearance of a major obstacle to joint European support for Ukraine’s self-defence is positive news.
It may be that Peter Magyar’s government will not expressly help, but not obstructing UK and EU efforts will be a huge relief. European energy security is interconnected.
Given how politicised energy security is, Europeans cannot depend on malicious actors to satisfy their energy needs, as this dependency weakens the resilience of the wider democratic system.
A more politically unified Europe is a step forward, but that unity must be supported by long-term efforts to diversify energy supply and reduce exposure to geopolitical risk.
Hungary’s election is therefore both a breakthrough and a warning. Hungarian people have removed one of the Kremlin’s key allies, but the deeper challenge remains.
While energy purchases from Russia continue, Putin will continue to be able to exert his corrupt and subversive influence inside Europe.
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