Let me be clear. I don’t believe for a second that Andy Burnham will fight Gorton and Denton. There is too much risk, and there will be plenty more attractive plums to be picked when Starmer is destroyed in the May elections.
But supposing I’m wrong (it has happened) and Burnham decides to be brave - there is no sign of that in his CV by the way- what kind of welcome would he receive in this Manchester constituency?
First of all, it’s very poor with 48 per cent of the children growing up in poverty, with some areas like Longsight totally skint. That doesn’t mean they haven’t given us heroes.
John Thaw, Brian Statham, Wayne Fontana and one of the Mindbenders, Nicky Butt, Davy Jones of the Monkees and Busby Babe great Roger Byrne are all old boys of the area.
Hasn’t been all-star names. Brady and Hindley weren’t born there but worked on the patch. Solidly Labour since 1935, the closest any party came to knocking them off their perch was Churchill’s grandson, who ran them close in the 1960s.
So, you would have thought Burnham, as a successful Mayor of Greater Manchester, would win by a country mile. You would be so wrong.
For the moment, let’s put aside the suggestion in both the Times and the Telegraph that Starmer’s allies on the NEC would try to block him from standing (they would be stark raving mad to do that). Burnham’s biggest problem is that he would be running under the Labour banner.
Andy Burnham would be mad to go now and instead should wait for the May disaster – Kelvin MacKenzie | Getty Images
By-election voters love giving the sitting party a bloody nose. I saw a poll last night showing Starmer’s mob were at a new low of 14% with Reform on 32 per cent (so much for those stories saying Farage has peaked) and even breast enlarger Polanski and his Greens ahead of Labour at 17 per cent.
In the 2024 General Election, Labour’s Andrew Gwynne cantered home with a 50.8% share of the vote and a 13,000+ majority. Reform was in second, and the Greens just behind in third.
But the reality is that Labour would have won easily if they had put up Noddy. That’s not the case today.
Starmer is the most unpopular leader in modern political history, and although I’m sure there will be a challenge to him before the summer, I don’t believe it will come through Gorton and Denton or through Burnham.
Voters will not enjoy being used by Burnham as a vehicle for his ambition. After all, due to the previous 90 years of Labour control, it has left them among the poorest constituencies in England, so why should that change with Burnham, as he will have only picked the area because the timing suited?
He could not give a stuff about Gorton and Denton, and the locals know it.
With Reform throwing everything and the kitchen sink at any election battle, I can see this as a great custard pie moment. And that’s why Burnham won’t chance it.
In the event he were to confound my view and run and win, the reality is that Labour would be torn apart and do even worse in May. I saw a poll the other day saying they were at 10 per cent in Wales.
Since, like Gorton and Denton, they have run the nation into the ground, they deserve everything heading their way. On the night of May 7, I will be getting the popcorn in.
Strangely so will Burnham. When Starmer does badly, Burnham, sitting on the bench, does better.
The good people of Gorton and Denton can do better than a fly-by-night like Burnham, who has already been twice rejected as Labour leader.
He’s a dud. But the whole party is all over the place. So bad that a woman who fiddled HMRC out of £40,000 is considered a fine candidate to be our Prime Minister.
My bet is that Labour limp on with Starmer and are literally destroyed by the voters both at the council elections and then the General Election.