Much of the discussion over the weekend has concerned Iran apparently launching two ballistic missiles at the joint UK/US military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
One missile failed in flight, and the others would appear to have been knocked down by a US anti-missile destroyer, but the event has certainly caught the headlines. It is interesting for two reasons; the first is that no one thought previously that the Iranians had ballistic missiles that could reach that far.
Conventional wisdom was that their arsenal could perhaps reach out to 2,000 km, but Diego Garcia is nearly twice that distance. We should note, however, that others have disputed the claim that the attack happened at all.
The second is that if the Iranians do have missiles with that range, then basically most of the capital cities of Europe, including London, are within their reach.
Britain has essentially no anti-ballistic missile defence whatsoever, although the Royal Navy’s six T45 destroyers are in the throes of getting upgrades to their weapons systems to allow them to take on this role in future.
Realistically, it is doubtful whether Iran has any intention to target Europe’s capitals, as it would bring down the combined wrath of the countries affected upon them, but it suits Tehran’s purposes to let the world know that it could do it if it so wished. It might be labelled ‘strategic ambiguity’.
Two 4,000-kilometre warheads are dragging Britain into the Iran war. This conflict is now close to home
|Getty Images
Arguably, the alleged attempt to hit Diego Garcia represents yet another direct attack on British sovereign territory – following on from the recent drone attacks on bases in Cyprus – and could provide Keir Starmer with a credible casus belli to join the USA and Israel in direct attacks in retaliation, but I think he’s far too cautious to take that step.
However, we should note that the Royal Navy’s nuclear-powered and Tomahawk-armed attack submarine HMS Anson has made best speed to the region from Australia and now has Tehran within range of its cruise missiles.
Most commentators think it, like HMS Dragon in the eastern Mediterranean, is too late, as that phase of the war is past, but you never know.
The other matter of recent interest has been the alleged attempt by an Iranian male and a Romanian female to gain access to the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent submarine base at Faslane on the Clyde.
Far from being a cloak-and-dagger operation, however, it would appear that they simply drove up to the main gate and asked if they could come in.
Both have now been arrested and charged by Police Scotland. While this appears to be a clumsy and amusing amateurish attempt to gain access, it’s interesting that both individuals were there in the first place, as Faslane is not en route to anywhere else of significance.
Possibly other ‘agents’ will be at large in the UK as well, and the security services will be vigilant for at least as long as the war in the Middle East continues.
And now we learn that an IRGC terror group in the UK, called Ashab al-Yamin, has claimed responsibility for torching four ambulances belonging to a Jewish volunteer EMT service in Golders Green, London, last night.
The terrorists may be on the loose already. With this most recent development, it looks increasingly as if Starmer's wiggle room for Britain not becoming involved in the Iran war is getting increasingly restricted. Events this coming week will be interesting.
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