As the Iran war enters its second month, the emphasis of the US/Israeli onslaught has clearly shifted. In general terms, the Iranian leadership has been decapitated (more than once), its air defences have been rendered ineffective, and its offensive missile and drone capabilities are much degraded.
US and Israeli aircraft now roam the skies over Iran unhindered and strike at will. Iranian political, military, and civil society is riddled with agents and informers at every level and is essentially an open book to its opponents’ intelligence agencies.
Nothing much happens now in Iran without the USA and Israel knowing about it. Yet Iran is still not defeated or persuaded to surrender, and has played its trump card of closing the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial shipping, less than ‘approved’ by Tehran.
The resultant global squeeze on oil and gas supplies and concomitant rise in commodity prices has presented the rest of the world with a real problem.
Of the many suggestions on how this impasse might be unlocked, the possible seizure by the US military of Kharg Island, situated about 15 miles off the eastern shores of the Arabian Gulf, has gained some currency.
Why? The Island is the primary export terminal for roughly 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil, serving as the main source of revenues for both the Iranian government and the IRGC.
It has an enormous storage capacity – about 31 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products – and is the final terminal for pipelines from major inland oil fields, acting as a massive distribution hub.
Controlling the Island and its facilities would give the USA and its allies a stranglehold over Iran’s economy and an enormous bargaining chip in any negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or end the war. Could the US seize and occupy the island? Most certainly yes, although not without risk or difficulty.
It has more than sufficient troops in theatre to do it and could bring overwhelming military force, as is the US military’s wont, to achieve the aim. The Iranian defenders of the island have already been pummelled from the air and degraded.
America's most dangerous mission lies 15 miles off the coast of Iran. Failure could spark a new forever war | Getty Images
An assault by the US 81st Airborne Division to seize the island’s airport, perhaps combined with a US Marine Corps seaborne landing, might seem the obvious way to go, although they are likely to meet resistance and suffer casualties. Holding the island after seizure presents another set of problems.
As previously noted, the island is only some 15 miles off the Iranian shore and therefore well within range of not just missiles and drones but probably conventional artillery as well.
To be absolutely sure of no direct Iranian interference from near range, the US would have to be able to negate that potential threat.
A quick look at the relief map of the shoreline opposite Kharg shows mountainous terrain with plenty of hiding places for Iranian troops.
And the last thing the US will want to do is put its ground troops there as well. Finally, there are the difficulties of getting out again. It is far easier to start a military operation than to end one, especially if the enemy remains intransigent and determined to interdict any withdrawal.
Far better to do it after a ceasefire has been agreed and relative peace prevails. So, I’m sure that the USA is more than capable of capturing and holding Kharg Island; the only question is whether it would be worth the effort. I’m not so sure it would be.