Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has developed a contingency plan to escape to Moscow should his security forces fail to crush ongoing demonstrations or begin abandoning him, an intelligence report has indicated.
The 86-year-old leader intends to flee Tehran accompanied by approximately 20 close associates and relatives if he perceives that military and security personnel are defecting or refusing to carry out orders, according to intelligence shared with The Times.
"The 'plan B' is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba," a source told the newspaper.
Beni Sabti, a former Israeli intelligence operative who escaped Iran eight years after the Islamic revolution, said that Moscow represents Mr Khamenei's only viable destination, noting that he "admires Putin, while the Iranian culture is more similar to the Russian culture".
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has developed a contingency plan to escape to Moscow should his security forces fail to crush ongoing demonstrations
|GETTU
The escape strategy mirrors the flight of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, who departed Damascus by aircraft for Moscow to reunite with his family before opposition fighters seized the capital in December 2024.
"They have plotted an exit route out of Tehran should they feel the need to escape," which includes "gathering assets, properties abroad and cash to facilitate their safe passage," the source said.
Mr Khamenei controls an extensive financial network, with significant holdings managed through Setad, a powerful semi-state charitable foundation notorious for its opaque finances.
A 2013 Reuters investigation estimated these assets at approximately $95billion (£70.6billion), encompassing properties and businesses under the Supreme Leader's control.
The escape strategy mirrors the flight of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad
|GETTY
Several of his senior advisers, including national security council secretary Ali Larijani, have relatives residing overseas in countries such as the United States, Canada and Dubai.
Economic hardship has sparked widespread demonstrations across Iranian cities over the past week, including in the sacred city of Qom.
Demonstrators have accused anti-riot units comprising the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij militia, police and army of deploying brutal tactics including live ammunition, tear gas and water cannons against protesters.
These forces answer directly to Mr Khamenei, who holds supreme authority over the military, judiciary and media in the Islamic republic.
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Economic hardship has sparked widespread demonstrations across Iranian cities over the past week
|REUTERS
A Western intelligence agency's psychological assessment, reviewed by The Times, characterised the Supreme Leader as "paranoid" and noted he has grown "weaker, both mentally and physically" following last year's 12-day conflict with Israel.
Mr Khamenei has remained largely absent from public view and has not appeared or spoken during the recent unrest.
During the Israeli conflict, he sheltered in a bunker, fuelling what the assessment described as his "obsession with survival".
Born in Mashhad in 1939 to a family of religious scholars with Azeri-Turkish heritage, Mr Khamenei developed early interests in poetry, literature and both Persian and Western music, including works by Tolstoy and Steinbeck.
Mr Khamenei has remained largely absent from public view and has not appeared or spoken during the recent unrest
|REUTERS
He joined opposition movements against Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, enduring multiple arrests and torture by the Savak secret police before surviving a 1981 assassination attempt that left one hand permanently disabled.
The intelligence assessment concluded this attack cemented his conviction of a "divine mission" to lead Iran against Israel and the West whilst preserving the regime at all costs.
Mr Khamenei has positioned himself as leader of Shi'ite Muslims globally, justifying support for Hezbollah, Hamas and militias across Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
The weakening of these proxy forces during the Israeli conflict has prompted Iranians to question such investments, with protesters chanting: "No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, I'd give my life for Iran only."
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