Arch-remainers have been dealt a blow on the eve of Keir Starmer's plan to reset relations with the European Union, as a new report has found Britain's exports to the rest of the world have galloped past those going to the bloc over the last two decades.
The staggering pace puts paid to the argument that Britain depends on access to the EU market for economic prosperity.
It is based on the latest trade figures, released by the Office for National Statistics on May 15.
In-depth analysis of the trade figures by the Facts4EU think-tank in association with GB News, shows that in the first quarter of this century (2000-2024) British exports to the rest of the world have grown 62 per cent faster than to the EU (see chart below).
At the turn of the millennium, the EU market represented 53.1 per cent of total UK exports to the world.
British exports to the rest of the world have grown 62 per cent faster than to the EU
Facts4EU
However, by 2024 this had fallen to just 41.0 per cent (see chart below).
What’s even worse for the EU is that this proportion has been dropping steadily and inexorably for the whole of the first quarter of this century, well before Brexit was even talked about.
The drop from 53.1 per cent down to 41 per cent means that, on its own, the EU’s share has fallen by well over a fifth in only 25 years.
At the current rate of decline its share of total UK exports will be 33.3 per cent, one-third, by 2040. Firstly here is the current position according to the chart by Facts4EU.
The EU’s share of global exports has fallen by well over a fifth in only 25 years.
Facts4EU
Extrapolating from the current trend, we calculate that only one-third of total British exports will go to the EU by 2040. The true picture is likely to be far worse for the EU, however.
The EU’s economy as a whole has been growing at very low levels this century, as more and more EU regulations and the higher costs associated with these have stifled innovation and investment.
Higher growth rates around the world have put the EU into the shade and British firms have been slowly taking advantage of the faster-expanding countries, with exports of UK goods and services increasing worldwide to the largest economies such as the US and China as well as to the small to mid-sized economies in parts of the world such as Asia.
The UK’s sales to the rest of the (non-EU) world have increased from well under half (46.9 per cent) to 59 per cent today.
It comes as Sir Keir Starmer has said that closer ties with the EU will be good for the UK’s jobs, bills and borders ahead of a summit on Monday at which he could announce a deal with the bloc.
The Government is set to host EU leaders in London next week as part of its efforts to "reset" relations after Brexit.
Reports suggest a deal on British access to a major EU defence fund could be on the table, but arguments over fishing rights and a youth mobility scheme may provide stumbling blocks to an agreement.
Sir Keir appeared to signal that a youth mobility deal could be possible, telling The Times that while freedom of movement was a "red line" in talks, "youth mobility is not freedom of movement."
