Britain's benefits bill to rise by £8BILLION even if Keir Starmer imposes strict reforms - dire warning

That growth is expected to happen regardless of planned cuts.

Without the Prime Minister’s proposed reforms, the IFS says the welfare bill could reach £66 billion.

The findings suggest that Labour’s flagship changes, which are already facing strong pushback from Left-wing MPs, will do little to stop soaring costs.

The IFS also warned that the number of people claiming disability benefits is likely to rise significantly, from 3.1 million today to 3.9 million by the end of the decade, even with tighter assessment rules.

Stricter rules are expected to include tightening the criteria for Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and capping health-related top-ups for Universal Credit.

However, analysts noted that benefit payments won’t drop straight away. Instead, the Treasury is likely to make savings gradually over time as the reforms take effect.

Eduin Latimer, economist at the IFS, said: "Their effect will steadily grow as more and more claimants are assessed under the new rules, though spending – and the number of claimants – will remain above pre-pandemic levels.

"The reforms also tilt the protection the system offers – more against job loss, less against disability onset.

"These reforms have mixed effects on work incentives. The changes may lead to an overall increase in employment, though any boost to employment income is unlikely to come close to offsetting the direct income losses experienced by affected claimants."

The reforms are intended to reduce the overall working-age welfare bill by approximately £5billion annually by the end of the decade.

The IFS analysis reveals that the welfare reforms will create a "big incentive" for people to qualify for PIP as they attempt to secure other benefits.

The think tank warned: "This creates a big incentive to qualify for Pip, and claimants are likely to respond to this by making more effort at the assessment and appealing their award if they fail initially."

The IFS report stated that "one consequence of these reforms is to make the Pip assessment especially important for determining health-related benefit support."

Starmer is considering concessions to his welfare reform bill to prevent a rebellion from 126 Labour MPs who have signed an amendment to torpedo the legislation.

The rebel MPs object to the lack of official consultation and impact assessments, with their amendment threatening to vote against the Government's working-age welfare reform plan when it comes before the House of Commons next week.

The Prime Minister has said he is open to making changes to his flagship welfare reforms as seeks to avoid a Labour revolt.

He explained he wanted to see benefit reforms "implemented with Labour values of fairness" and conversations with rebels "will continue in the coming days".

Speaking as he updated the House of Commons on his visit to G7 and Nato summits, Starmer said: "On social security I recognise there is a consensus across the House on the urgent need for reform of our welfare system because the British people deserve protection and dignity when they are unable to work and support into work when they can.

"At the moment they are failed every single day by the broken system created by the Conservatives which achieves neither. I know colleagues across the House are eager to start fixing that and so am I and that all colleagues want to get this right and so do I.

"We want to see reform implemented with Labour values of fairness. That conversation will continue in the coming days so that we can begin making change together on Tuesday."

Diane Abbott, the veteran Labour MP and former shadow Home Secretary, has argued the rebels "are just trying to protect disabled people".

Rachael Maskell, one of the MPs who signed the amendment, stated that the "only option is to withdraw the Bill" and return to the drawing board on welfare reform.

She posted on X: "It is clear that the UC & PIP Bill cannot and must not be saved. Any concessions will still cause harm to disabled people. The only option is to withdraw the Bill, rethink and start to rebuild trust with disabled people. Not to is not Labour."

The Government's reforms aim to save money through two primary measures: making it more difficult for people to access Personal Independence Payments and reducing the rate of incapacity benefit.

Incapacity benefit, primarily paid through the health element of Universal Credit, goes to those considered unable to work for health reasons. This benefit will be reduced by 50 per cent in cash terms for new claimants from April 2026.

For existing claimants, payments will be held flat in cash terms until 2029-30, meaning they will not rise with inflation.

The Government estimates these two changes will save £3bn annually by the end of the decade.