If Braverman's warning comes true, it could send Sunak's Government into freefall - analysis by Christopher Hope

If Braverman's warning comes true, it could send Sunak's Government into freefall - analysis by Christopher Hope
Christopher Hope

By Christopher Hope


Published: 12/01/2024

- 17:00

The Government's working majority is 54 in the Commons - so just 28 Tory rebels are needed to defeat the Bill

Here we go again. If some Conservatives from the right of the party have learned anything from the battles over Brexit it is that words have to mean something.

So when the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said a year ago that he would "stop the boats", nothing less than that will do.


That explains former Home Secretary Suella Braverman's extraordinary interview with me for GB News today, which will have set pulses racing in 10 Downing St.

Braverman is saying, in terms, that she will vote down the Rwanda Bill - probably on Wednesday next week - if Sunak does not toughen up the legislation to allow flights taking off with illegally-arrived migrants.

Sunak/Braverman

PA/GBN

It comes after Sunak himself said on Monday on a visit to Accrington Stanley Football Club that he would welcome any "bright ideas" to improve the legislation.

So far, over 50 right-wing Conservative MPs believe that there are plenty of bright ideas in the amendments tabled by former Immigration minister Robert Jenrick and Brexiteer veteran Sir Bill Cash.

However senior figures on the left of the party in the One Nation Caucus have made clear that they will not tolerate any hardening in the Rwanda Bill and want the legislation to pass unamended.

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To complicate matters the PM has made clear that the Rwanda government might seek to collapse the treaty if it is made any tougher.

The PM is in an invidious position. His calculation must be whether Braverman's threat to vote down the unamended Bill is a lone protest or is she part of a wider group who will take their lead from her.

The stakes are high. The Government's working majority is 54 in the Commons - so just 28 Tory rebels are needed to defeat the Bill.

If that were to happen it would leave Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer very tempted to table a vote of no confidence in the Government.I doubt such a move would succeed - but a no confidence vote would drive home the impression of a government in freefall. Sunak’s gamble is that not enough Tory MPs are as willing as Braverman to take a stand and will vote it through the Commons on the hope that it will not be frustrated by human rights lawyers.The lesson from the Brexit years is that for some Tory MPs delivering on a promise matters more than party loyalty. It is going to be a long political weekend for Sunak and his team.

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