Voters have abandoned Tories with more switching to Reform than Labour - Michael Heaver's analysis

Voters have abandoned Tories with more switching to Reform than Labour - Michael Heaver's analysis

GB News Community Editor Michael Heaver reflects on the latest Westminster polling.

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Michael  Heaver

By Michael Heaver


Published: 16/01/2024

- 15:46

In this GB News members-only video, GB News Community Editor Michael Heaver drills down into the UK political landscape in 2024

It's hard to believe how much things have changed since Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to that very dramatic and big landslide General Election victory.

Of course, Boris Johnson now no longer even an MP and instead the Conservative Party staring down the barrel of a devastating defeat at the next General Election.


"Indeed, the latest YouGov MRP poll that's come out shows the party facing a devastating defeat and a Labour majority. .

"The key statistic I think, in that piece of research was the fact that just 38% of those who voted Conservative at the General Election in 2019 are definitely intending to vote Tory again.

And here's the thing. Those voters haven't by and large drifted off to the Labour Party. More have actually switched to Reform UK.

Of course the Conservatives will deploy the argument 'vote Reform, Get Labour'. That's what they will say.

Except there's some interesting constituency level poll results we've seen recently. We saw a Survation poll that shows, as it stands, Nigel Farage has a 10-point lead in the constituency of Clacton, a 10-point lead over the incumbent Conservative MP Giles Watling.

In the YouGov MRP data that I've drilled into you'll see that in Hartlepool where Reform Leader Richard Tice is standing, he's actually in second place with Labour leading and the Tories third.

So Tice may well say he's actually the main challenger in that constituency to the Labour Party.

Of course the Conservatives now face a massive uphill struggle struggle and they know it. And Rishi Sunak's Rwanda Bill is aimed at stopping the boats. But it is facing criticism from many even within his own party in terms of the legislation not being tough enough, not doing enough when it comes to the interference, intervention of the ECHR.