Scientists have issued warnings that London could face the threat of dengue fever within the next ten years as Asian tiger mosquitoes continue their northward advance across Europe.
The disease-carrying insects have been spreading through the continent since their initial appearance in Albania in 1979.
Research published in Global Change Biology reveals that climate change has created favourable conditions for these mosquitoes to establish themselves in major European cities.
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Pest control teams have carried out mosquito control operations in Bourges, France, after three residents contracted Dengue abroad
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The insects, scientifically known as Aedes albopictus, transmit dengue fever, a tropical disease that can lead to serious health complications, including internal bleeding, severe blood pressure drops and potentially fatal outcomes.
The pace of the mosquitoes' northward migration has dramatically increased in recent years.
Research from Montpellier University shows that in France, the insects advanced at approximately four miles annually in 2006, but by 2024, this rate had tripled to twelve miles per year.
The study utilised climate and environmental modelling combined with twenty years of data to monitor the expansion patterns of the Asian tiger mosquito.
Scientists discovered that while southern European regions have provided suitable habitats for the species for years, major northern cities, including Vienna, Strasbourg and Frankfurt, now offer equally hospitable climatic conditions for these disease vectors.
"Extrapolating from the results, it is estimated that the mosquito could establish itself in northern France within a decade, from where it could easily reach London, which is already climatically suitable for hosting this vector," stated Andrea Radici from Montpellier University, who led the research.
The sharp rise in European dengue cases underscores this growing threat. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control documented 304 dengue cases in 2024 alone, while the preceding fifteen years saw only 275 cases combined.
This dramatic surge suggests dengue could establish itself permanently in European regions, driven by warming temperatures and increased global travel.
The World Health Organisation reports that dengue cases have surged from 505,430 in 2000 to 14.6 million in 2024, with the disease now established in over 100 countries.
Scientists suggest the European outbreak patterns could indicate dengue establishing a permanent presence in the continent, accelerated by climate shifts and international travel patterns.
Europe's temperature increases have outpaced global trends significantly. According to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, the continent has experienced warming at double the worldwide rate since the 1980s.
The year 2024 marked record-breaking temperatures both globally and across Europe, which recorded its second-highest count of heat stress days.
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Dengue fever is now established in more than 100 countries
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What are the symptoms of Dengue Fever?
Dengue fever frequently goes undetected, with numerous individuals showing no symptoms whatsoever. The illness, transmitted through infected mosquito bites, typically manifests between four and ten days after exposure.
Initial symptoms closely resemble influenza, making an accurate diagnosis challenging. Patients develop temperatures reaching 40C, accompanied by severe headaches and muscle discomfort.
Joint pain proves particularly troublesome, while nausea and vomiting add to the distress.
Additional indicators include pain localised behind the eyes, swollen lymph nodes and skin rashes.
These symptoms generally persist for approximately seven days before subsiding. Most patients achieve full recovery within this timeframe without complications.
However, a minority of cases develop into severe dengue, presenting life-threatening complications. This dangerous progression typically occurs within 48 hours after the initial fever subsides, catching many patients off guard.
All critical warning signs demand immediate emergency medical intervention.