Joe Biden is losing THREE key groups of voters as pollster issues warning

Joe Biden is losing THREE key groups of voters as pollster issues warning

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GBN
Jack Walters

By Jack Walters


Published: 08/01/2024

- 16:00

The 46th US President is hoping to return to the White House for a second term

A top pollster has warned Joe Biden is losing votes from three key groups which could cost him the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Biden, 81, will ramp up his White House campaign ahead of November 5 but could suffer a humiliating defeat unless he takes steps to court African-Americans, Hispanics and young women.


The 46th President is down with all three groups compared to polling day in 2020.

Biden’s victory over White House predecessor Donald Trump was so narrow that he could find himself out of power unless he brings enough voters back on board.

Joe Biden during a campaign event

Joe Biden during a campaign event

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JL Partners co-founder James Johnson, who headed polling in Downing Street under Theresa May, has been carrying out extensive research in the United States ahead of November 5.

He told GB News: “In all of these situations, there are ways that you can see Biden getting some of those groups back: firing up enthusiasm amongst black voters, passing some border measures as part of the supplementary bills to try to win back some Hispanics, using the threat of Trump to bring those 18 to 29-year-old women back on board.

“But Biden has to lose so few votes in order to lose. The margins are so small and that's a real worry for him. If one per cent fewer African-American voters vote for Biden in Georgia, he'll lose the state. We're talking about very small margins here. All three of those categories should be real concerns for the President.”

The Peach State, which voted for Trump in 2016, narrowly cast its 16 electoral college votes for Biden after the former Vice President won by just 11,779 ballots.

Biden also won by a mere 10,457 votes in Arizona and 20,682 ballots in Wisconsin.

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An African-American Trump supporter

An African-American Trump supporter

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Trump would return to the White House if he flipped all three states and clung onto those held in 2020.

Explaining why Biden is down with the three key voter groups, Johnson said: “There’s a few different things going on there because each of the categories are quite different. With African-Americans and Hispanics, that's a trend that was happening in 2020. It seems to have continued to happen between 2020 and now. A lot of that is partly because of immigration. African-Americans and Hispanic people are very frustrated by what's happening on the border.

“They've worked for their status and they see people coming over and not just being let in willy-nilly. That really frustrates them. That's obviously an area which they criticise Biden for. An African-American chap I was interviewing in Georgia back in November said to me, ‘Black people are waking up and they're becoming more aware that the Democrats are happy to trade their votes for the votes of white women’.

“What he meant by that was, they're focusing on more cultural war issues, woke issues, that are turning off African-Americans who care about the values of family, anti-crime, anti-drugs, and instead going on to a more woke agenda. That's a big factor there.

“There's also enthusiasm on the African-American side for Biden. The enthusiasm that they had in 2020 Isn't there. I think that's partly because of Biden's age, partly because of his record and partly because the political climate has just generally gotten a bit calmer since Trump's been out of the picture, at least in terms of not being President.”

Hispanic voters have been gripped by the illegal immigration catastrophe

Hispanic voters have been gripped by the illegal immigration catastrophe

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The shift in voting trends since 2020 can also help explain how Trump improved on his result in Florida.

Cuban-American voters in the Sunshine State helped propel Trump to carry its 29 electoral college votes, with commentators pointing out the swing towards the Grand Old Party in Miami-Dade.

However, Trump has been unable to court young women who voted for Biden in 2020.

Johnson explained the Israel-Hamas conflict is continuing to turn 18 to 29-year-old women away from the 46th President.

He revealed: “There’s been a decline of 20 percentage points since the summer. The big thing going on there is Israel and the feeling that the Biden administration has taken a pro-Israel stance. These women are not going to go to Trump.”

Members of the Palestinian Youth Movement calling for a ceasefire in Gaza rally Friday at Holmby Park

Members of the Palestinian Youth Movement calling for a ceasefire in Gaza rally Friday at Holmby Park

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JL Partners found Biden’s lead over Trump among the key demographic collapsed from 27 points to just 10 per cent.

Trump overtook Biden in a head-to-head match-up over the same period, with Biden’s two per cent advantage flipping to a three-point deficit.

The 46th President’s support tanked around the time he claimed a “ceasefire [in Gaza] is not peace”.

Biden added: “Our goal should not be simply to stop the war for today — it should be to end the war forever, break the cycle of unceasing violence, and build something stronger in Gaza and across the Middle East so that history does not keep repeating itself.”

A group of ex-White House interns have since signed an open letter to Biden imploring him to support an immediate ceasefire.

The letter said: “Our dissatisfaction with your actions reflects the sentiments of young people across the United States – individuals whom you credited as instrumental in securing your 2020 victory. We urge the President and Vice President to take concrete steps to end the conditions of apartheid, occupation, and ethnic cleansing in Gaza by: standing with our allies around the world in demanding a permanent ceasefire, ending unconditional military aid to Israel, securing the release of Israeli and Palestinian hostages alike, and labeling Israel’s recent actions as war crimes. Anything less than these measures undermines the justice we collectively aspired to achieve.”

Donald TrumpDonald TrumpREUTERS

The conflict in the Middle East escalated after Hamas inflicted an atrocious terror attack on Israel on October 7.

Hamas' attack resulted in 1,200 deaths and hundreds of Israelis being taken hostage.

Israel’s retaliatory strikes have killed more than 22,000 Palestinians in Gaza, the Strip’s Hamas-run Health Ministry has claimed.

Biden appeared to shift Washington’s narrative on Israel last month as he openly criticised the strategy adopted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He said: “We have to be careful. They have to be careful. The whole world's public opinion can shift overnight. We can't let that happen.”

Biden also confirmed the United States would continue to work to free hostages held in Gaza, speed humanitarian aid to Palestinians and "emphasise to our Israeli friends we need to protect civilian life."

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