Rishi Sunak has been warned by Sir John Curtice he is losing votes to Reform just as much as he is losing votes to Labour.
The British political scientist has said that for every 2019 Tory voter now choosing Labour, “there is another one voter who now says they will vote for Reform."
It comes as Sir John said that latest opinion polls indicated that Reform is "already a problem" for Rishi Sunak.
Meanwhile, former Reform leader Nigel Farage said he is "enjoying life" but says he "got to decide … do I want to do [a return to active politics] again?"
Sir John Curtice issues devastating warning to Sunak that could see Tories obliterated
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Sir John told the BBC's World at One programme: "If the opinion polls are correct Reform are now already proving to be something of a problem for the Conservatives.
"If you actually look at the polls that were done in December and examine how people who voted for the Conservatives in 2019 what they now say they will do, for every one voter who now says they will vote for Labour, there is another one voter that now says they will vote Reform.
"In other words, the Conservatives are losing votes as heavily to Reform as they are to Labour.
"That is one of the problems that now faces Rishi Sunak as he tries to works out how to recover from the slew of electoral despond."
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Nigel Farage has said he has not yet decided if he would return to frontline politics
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Asked about Farage's potential impact on polling for Reform, Sir John said: "Certainly there's one opinion poll not so long ago that suggested that Reform may go up to about 14 per cent in the polls, they're currently on an average of about nine per cent.
"That still could mean that Reform would end up as Ukip did in 2015 without any MPs.
"But that would still add significantly to the Conservative's problems because Reform are attracting the voters and they are the foundation of the Conservative's success in 2019.
"Nigel Farage is a charismatic figure. Reform is not that well known although it is getting better known but with Nigel Farage at its head it would be much more of a challenge to the Conservatives than the not inconsiderable challenge that Reform are already posing.
Earlier in the show, Nigel Farage was asked about his chances of returning to frontline politics.
Farage said: "I think the level of distrust amongst traditional Conservative voters is at a level not seen in modern times.
"I am pretty busy with broadcasting and GB News and popping into the jungle and enjoying life in general.
"I haven't yet decided whether I'm going to play an active role in this or not."