SHOCK poll has Reform eating into Labour's lead in London as Tories falter - would YOUR seat turn light blue?

While Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party still maintains a healthy lead in the polls backing for the party has fallen 13 percentage points since last year's Mayoral election, which saw Sadiq Khan beat Conservative candidate Susan Hall, to 30 per cent.

Now, according to number crunching from Electoral Calculus, Labour would lose 12 seats across the capital, should the polling prove accurate. This would hand Reform 15 seats.

This would be an enormous leap from last year's General Election, where Reform finished second in the Dagenham and Rainham seat, won by Labour's Margaret Mullane and Hornchurch and Upminster, won by the Conservatives Julia Lopez.

Around 25 per cent of Reform’s backers in the capital voted Conservative at the General Election, compared to five per cent who supported Labour last July.

Meanwhile, 12 per cent of Green supporters in London voted Labour at the General Election, as did nine per cent of Liberal Democrat backers.

The calculation took into account where Labour had the slimmest majority or where they lost seats, and proposed they would swing to Reform. This includes Ilford North, where Health Secretary Wes Streeting only barely held onto his seat against pro-Gaza independent candidate Leanne Mohamad by just 528 votes.

It also suggests places where Labour lost at the election last year would swing to Farage's party, including Islington North, the seat of former leader turned independent candidate Jeremy Corbyn, who beat Labour's Praful Nargund by 7,247 votes.

The figures are also bad news for the Tories, as one of those losing their seat would be former leader Iain Duncan Smith, who would lose his Chingford and Woodford Green, which he has held since 1992.

Reacting to the FindOutNow poll, Farage said: "This new London polling is strong for Reform and it’s before we have even got going. Even in our least advanced region we are ahead of a dying Conservative Party."

THE FULL LIST OF LONDON SEATS THAT WOULD SWING TO REFORM AND THE 2024 MAJORITY

• Islington North: Currently held by Jeremy Corbyn (Independent) - 7,247
• Bethnal Green and Stepney: Currently held by Rushanara Ali (Labour) - 1,689
• West Ham and Beckton: Currently held by James Edward Asser (Labour) - 9,254
• Barking: Currently held by Nesil Caliskan (Labour) - 11,054
• Iilford South: Cuurently held by Jas Athwal (Labour) - 6,896
• Feltham and Heston: Currently held by Seema Malhotra (Labour) - 7,944
• Ilford North: Currently held by Wes Streeting (Labour) - 528
• Dagenham and Rainham: Currently held by Margaret Mullane (Labour) - 7,173
• Eltham and Chislehurst: Currently held by Clive Efford (Labour) - 8,429
• Bexleyheath and Crayford: Currently held by Daniel Francis (Labour) - 2,114
• Chingford and Woodford Green: Currently held by Iain Duncan Smith (Conservatives) - 4,758
• Carshalton and Wallington: Currently held by Bobby Dean (Liberal Democrat) - 7,905
• Romford: Currently held by Andrew Rosindell (Conservative) - 1,463
• Hornchurch and Upminster: Currently held by Julia Lopez (Conservatives) - 1,943
• Old Bexley and Sidcup: Currently held by Louie French (Conservatives) - 3,548

Managing expectations 

The buzz is intoxicating, but Reform faces formidable challenges as it attempts to become a party of government, explains elections guru John Curtice.

The most "crucial" point to understand is that "who wins in terms of votes and who gains in terms of seats is not necessarily the same thing", he tells GB News.

This has been a sore point for Reform since the last General Election.

Thanks to the quirks of Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system, Reform won only five MPs despite coming second to Labour in 98 constituencies, as the party's vote share was spread thinly across many constituencies as opposed to being concentrated.