New data published by the Home Office has revealed that the Rwanda asylum scheme appeared to have a deterrent effect on Channel crossings, even before any removal flights took place.
The figures show that migrant arrivals remained significantly lower during periods of calm weather after the Conservative government's Safety of Rwanda Act was passed in April 2024.
Despite a record 21 "red days", when weather conditions were favourable for crossings, in May 2024, only 2,765 migrants arrived, roughly the same as previous months with poor weather.
The following month saw 20 red days but just 3,007 arrivals, suggesting the scheme's announcement was already influencing crossing attempts.
The data is damning reading for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour
PA
The data also indicated a similar pattern when the Rwanda scheme was first unveiled in April 2022, with low arrival numbers despite favourable crossing conditions.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said the analysis "proves the Rwanda removals plan was having a deterrent effect in the weeks before it even had a chance to start."
He stated: "The number of arrivals was low even on red days in the weeks after the Safety of Rwanda Act was passed. The deterrent effect of the prospect of removal to Rwanda was already kicking in."
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer scrapped the Rwanda scheme as one of his first acts after winning power in July's election.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said the data shows Rwanda was having an 'effect'
PA
The criticism comes as Saturday witnessed 1,195 small boat arrivals, the fifth highest daily tally on record and the first day to break the 1,000 barrier for more than two-and-a-half years.
Philp accused Labour of having "no plan to end illegal immigrants crossing the Channel," adding: "This proves it was a catastrophic mistake by Labour to cancel the Rwanda scheme.
"Common sense tells us that illegal migrants would not want to come to the UK if they faced the prospect of being removed to Rwanda."
He said: "The Labour Government seems to think that praying for bad weather is a good border security strategy. That's why 2025 is the worst year in history for illegal crossings - not the weather."
The Home Office maintains it is 'restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited'
PAMigration experts have contradicted the government's weather explanation for rising crossings.
Dr Peter Walsh from Oxford University's Migration Observatory said: "There's no evidence to suggest that the weather is a major factor explaining long-term increases in small boat arrivals, such as the one we've seen over the past eight months."
He added that weather "seems unlikely" to be "much more than a short-term constraint on small boat crossings," suggesting other factors like "the number of people wanting to reach the UK and the number and professionalisation of smuggling gangs are likely to be more important."
The Home Office maintains it is "restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited."
More From GB News
Most Read
