Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform inevitably raises the question of whether he will take people with him. After all, he won a creditable 43 per cent of the vote in the leadership contest between himself and Kemi Badenoch in autumn 2024.
The Tory leader will certainly be hoping that her decision to sack him before he had resolved to defect will help dissuade any more Tory MPs from engaging in exploratory talks with Nigel Farage.
But is there a risk that Mr Jenrick’s defection will be followed by yet another wave of 2024 Tory voters changing their allegiance to Reform? After all, more than one in four have already made that journey, and perhaps the sight of one of their party’s standard bearers making it too will persuade others to join them?
In the heat of the Westminster cauldron, it is all too easy to forget that few politicians succeed in attracting the attention of the electorate. Mr Jenrick is no exception.
When YouGov most recently (in October) asked people whether they thought favourably or unfavourably about the former aspirant to the Tory leadership, over half (54 per cent) said that they did not know. The figure was not much lower among those who in 2024 backed the Conservatives (49 per cent) or Reform (44 per cent).
That in itself suggests that not many of those who might potentially be swithering between the Conservatives and Reform are likely to be immediately swayed by Mr Jenrick’s decision.
Robert Jenrick's popularity cuts across the divide but a hidden landmine warns his defection may be too late | Getty Images
Still, among those who do have a view, the Newark MP was not only on balance regarded favourably (by 30 per cent to 21 per cent) by those who voted Conservative in 2024, but also (unlike Ms Badenoch) by those who supported Reform (by 30 per cent to 25).
Moreover, he was more popular in this poll among Reform voters than he had been twelve months previously (when 31 per cent viewed him unfavourably, 22 per cent favourably) shortly before he lost the leadership battle.
In short, Mr Jenrick’s popularity appears to extend across the Conservative/Reform divide, suggesting that his defection might make Reform look more attractive in at least the eyes of a few who hitherto have remained loyal to the Tories.
However, since October, there has been a notable improvement in Ms Badenoch’s personal popularity. Not only is this evident among 2024 Conservative supporters (62 per cent now think favourably of her, up from 51 per cent in October), but also among those who voted Reform at the last election.
Indeed, in YouGov’s most recent poll, as many as 50 per cent of 2024 Reform supporters now think favourably of the Tory leader, while only 39 per cent regard her unfavourably.
Alas, we do not have more recent figures for Mr Jenrick, but it seems likely that, prior to yesterday, Ms Badenoch had become more popular than her former party colleague among 2024 Reform voters.
Moreover, this improvement in her rating has coincided with a small but notable two to three point improvement in her party’s standing in the polls, while support for Reform is now three points lower than in the autumn.
In short, Ms Badenoch has already begun to show signs of being able to win back the support of those attracted by Reform. Hastened though it evidently was by his sacking, perhaps Mr Jenrick made his move too late?
More From GB News