Reform voters were asked what would change their minds on Tories...the answer is staggering

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride insisted the Tories still have “all to play for” in the general election despite the drubbing inflicted in local and regional contests.

In a message to the Prime Minister’s critics on the Conservative benches, Mr Stride said the party had to be “united” to win back voters.

Mr Stride, a close ally of the Prime Minister, said a lot of Conservative voters “stayed away” from the ballot boxes at the May 2 contests because they were “disgruntled”.

But the general election later this year will be an “entirely difference contest”, he said.

One of the key parties unsettling the Tory party vote is Reform.

Reform led by Richard Tice with the backing of Nigel Farage has seen a huge surge in support from 2019 Tory voters and Brexiteers.

Some 31 per cent of Tory voters in 2019 have now transferred to Reform while 32 per cent of Leave voters are opting for the right-wing rebels as their party of choice.

We looked at some of the core reasons Reform voters had chosen to move away from the Conservative Party.

But there is one way the Tories could gain back the trust of Reform voters and swing the vote back in their favour.

In association with the Legatum Institute and the People's Panel, Reform voters were asked 'Imagine if Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party offered the country a referendum on reducing net migration from nearly 700,000 today to less than 100,000 in the years ahead. To what extent, if any would it make you more or less likely to vote for the Conservatives?'

Of the 3400 polled, 42% said it would make them more likely to vote for the Tory party meanwhile and more staggeringly 40% said it would not make any difference at all.

A strong immigration policy from Sunak would attract voters back to the Tory party but amazingly 40% would still be unmoved with Sunak needing to do a great deal more to turn heads away from Richard Tice's party.

Also tellingly, some 23% of Reform voters now believe the Tory party is a left wing party while 38% said it was a party of the Centre.

MPs return to Parliament on Tuesday after the full extent of the electoral mauling in the local polls became clear over the bank holiday weekend.

Mr Sunak dismissed demands for a change of political course on Monday, saying he was “determined more than ever to show the public that what we’re doing is making a difference” on issues including the economy and migration.

The Prime Minister will seek to get back on the front foot this week with a raft of announcements, including from Mr Stride on welfare reforms, and a hope that Friday figures covering the economy’s performance over the first quarter of this year will show the UK has exited its recession.

He has been given space to do so by the apparent fizzling out of a Tory rebellion against his leadership, talked up last week as a means of reversing the party’s electoral fortunes in anticipation of challenging local elections.

Mr Sunak insisted the result of the national vote was not “a foregone conclusion”, despite Labour’s gaping poll lead and the Conservatives losing nearly 500 council seats, the West Midlands mayoral race and the Blackpool South by-election.

Ben Page, chief executive of polling company Ipsos, said Mr Sunak’s projection was “for the birds”.

The Tory leader told broadcasters during a visit to a north London community centre: “The independent analysis shows that whilst of course this was a disappointing weekend for us, that the result of the next general election isn’t a foregone conclusion, and indeed actually is closer than, or the situation is closer than many people are saying or indeed some of the opinion polls are predicting.

“And that’s why I’m absolutely determined to fight incredibly hard for what I believe and for the future country that I want to build, and that’s what I’m going to do.”