Are Reform taking Labour votes? How Wales poll shows Reform makes gains as Labour plummets

The leader of Reform is expected to attack Labour's record on the NHS, schools, 20mph speed limits and Covid restrictions.

Announcing their manifesto on Labour's home ground could be seen as an attempt by Reform to take on the position of the official Opposition in Wales.

Reform UK overtook the Tories in the polls last week but is standing just behind the Conservative party in Wales, according to a YouGov poll.

Meanwhile, YouGov's daily tracker found the number of people planning to vote for Labour in Wales plummeted in two weeks.

Last week, Labour scored their lowest voting percentage rating in Wales in 2024 standing at 31 per cent, a substantial drop from 51 per cent at the end of May.

Meanwhile, Reform UK have crept their way up the polls in Wales this year, rising from 11 per cent on January 3 to 17 per cent on June 13.

Reform saw its highest rating in the polls in Wales on May 22 at 22 per cent, equal to the Conservative party on that day.

Farage is expected to argue that since devolution the Welsh people have been "let down" by Labour leaders and ignored by London's "political establishment."

Ahead of Reform's launch in South Wales, Farage said: "Schools are worse than in England, NHS waiting lists are longer than in England, Covid restrictions were even tighter than in England and now Welsh motorists are being soaked by literally hundreds of speed cameras to enforce the deeply unpopular new 20mph blanket speed limit in towns and villages.

"Meanwhile, the Tories have been the official opposition almost solidly since 2016 and have achieved zilch, which probably explains why we are neck-and-neck with them in the polls in Wales.

"So, if you want a picture of what the whole country will be like with a Starmer government and a feeble Conservative opposition, come to Wales and then hear us unveil a better future for all of Britain."

An increase in support for Reform in South Wales comes as voters are increasingly fed up with the Conservative UK government but feel uninspired by Starmer's Labour Party.

Welsh voters may be turning to right-wing parties like Reform as they propose themselves as the voice for ordinary people rather than big businesses.

Party spokesperson Gawain Towler said Reform is targeting "a sweep" of the north-east of Wales, down the border with England and across the south Wales valleys and through to Pembrokeshire.

Reform's proposal is expected to focus on freezing "non-essential" immigration, leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and stopping Channel crossings.

The party have also pledged to increase the income tax threshold from £12,570 to £20,000 and scrap stamp duty on properties under £750,000.

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They have also vowed to cut NHS waiting lists to zero in two years and offer tax relief for those taking out private health insurance instead of using the NHS.

Welsh Labour spoke out against Reform UK calling them a "band of chancers seeking to sow division."

Jessica Morden, Welsh Labour's campaign chair, said: "Nigel Farage's brand of divisive politics is not welcome here in Wales.

"Wales has a proud history of being an inclusive society, and Reform's band of chancers seeking to sow division will find little succour.

"It's no wonder that all of Farage's party were turfed out of the Welsh Parliament at the last election."