Reform UK has surged to its highest ever rating, as a new poll has handed Nigel Farage’s populist party a significant lead over Labour.
In an Ipsos poll released on Saturday, the Reform leader landed a nine-point lead over Sir Keir Starmer, with Labour voting intention sinking to its lowest share since October 2019.
The poll, which interviewed 1,180 British adults between May 30 to June 4, shows Reform UK on a 34 per cent vote share.
It marks the highest result Ipsos has ever recorded for Reform, and places Farage nine points ahead of the Labour Party.
Labour came in second place with 25 per cent – the lowest share Ipsos has recorded for Labour since October 2019.
The Conservatives received just 15 per cent – the lowest share Ipsos has ever recorded.
Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats landed on 11 per cent, the Greens at nine per cent and others at six per cent.
Responding to the results, Nigel Farage wrote on X: “Reform UK achieves its highest ever opinion poll rating with 34 per cent.
“The British people now really believe that we can win the next election.”
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Nigel Farage has been handed a nine-point lead over Labour
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Ipsos voting intention poll: June 2025
Ipsos
Reform's new head of Doge, Zia Yusuf, added: "Reform reaches a new record high in any poll: 34 per cent with Ipsos.
"Enough for a big majority. Real change is coming to Britain."
A seat map projection via Electoral Calculus using the data would hand Farage the keys to No10, win in excess of 400 seats and give the party a majority of almost 200.
By the same measure, the Tory party would be reduced to just 6 seats.
In a conversion of the results to a seat map projection, Reform would win in excess of 400 seats
Electoral Calculus
However, it should be noted, national polling is challenging to translate into accurate seat numbers.
Elsewhere in the Ipsos data, it has been revealed Reform UK is currently holding on to nearly all of their 2024 voters (95 per cent).
Both Conservatives and Labour are only retaining about half of their 2024 voters at 48 per cent and 54 per cent respectively.
Reasons behind Reform's lead are made more clear by the data showing one in three Conservative voters (37 per cent) have since switched to Reform UK since the last election.
Labour, meanwhile, is also haemorrhaging support to both Reform UK (12 per cent of their 2024 vote), the Liberal Democrats and Greens (8 per cent and 5 per cent respectively).
Ipsos data shows voting intention since 2015 General Election
IPSOS
The Ipsos polling additionally gathered information on satisfaction among voters with leaders and the Government.
A shocking two-thirds of Labour voters said they were satisfied with the Government.
Nigel Farage was found to have the highest level of satisfaction among main party leaders (34 per cent), though still negative net satisfaction overall (-15, with 49 per cent dissatisfied).
However, this appeared a far cry from the net -54 and -49 seen with Starmer and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.
Just three in ten (29 per cent) Conservative voters said they were satisfied with Badenoch.
Nigel Farage has the highest satisfaction rating amoung voters according to the Ipsos polling
IPSOS
Commenting on the latest poll, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, Gideon Skinner, said: "The last year has indeed been a long time in politics, with our first voting intention since the election showing just how much the political landscape has transformed since then.
"Reform UK has continued to build on its success, helped by high levels of enthusiasm among its own support and among working-class voters in particular, and taking votes from both Labour and especially the Conservatives, who show little sign of recovery.
"The disappointment with Labour is clear, even among those who voted for the party in 2024.
"We know from Ipsos research how difficult it has been to shift entrenched public pessimism over the cost of living, immigration, and the state of public services, and so far, Britons do not think Labour is delivering the tangible change they were hoping for in 2024.
"This is reflected in satisfaction ratings for the Government and Prime Minister that - while not quite the worst Ipsos has ever seen - are well below the average we usually see coming up to a one-year anniversary.
"Indeed, they look remarkably similar to the poor ratings received by Gordon Brown in 2008 after the financial crash.
"Labour will be hoping that the Spending Review will start to switch the narrative to a more positive one of renewal, but the challenge they face is significant."
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